Big Lychee, Various Sectors

…there will be no relief from NatSec. The trials of Jimmy Lai and the HK47 will make international headlines, and no doubt there will be more arrests for T-shirts and Facebook posts, more patriotism in schools, and more bounties for exiled dissidents. Then there’s the local (Article 23) NatSec Law – abandoned in 2003, but still needed to ‘plug gaps’. As the HKFP explainer says…

…the city’s own security law should prohibit seven types of offences – treason; secession; sedition; subversion against the central government; theft of state secrets; foreign bodies’ conducting political activities in the city; and local bodies establishing ties with foreign bodies.

What will be in it?

Obviously new legislation on treason, secession, theft of state secrets, etc – presumably with looser wording, tougher penalties and weaker protection for suspects than found in existing statutes. 

Almost certainly a replacement for the colonial-era (1920s) sedition law. Although barely used in colonial times, the old law was resurrected after 2019, and charges for various forms of ‘incitement’ are now commonplace, such as for the aforementioned T-shirts, Facebook posts, etc. But the colonial legislation has a maximum prison sentence of just two years, so we can expect harsher penalties, in line with other NatSec offenses.

Almost certainly measures aimed at media, academic, cultural and other groups and individuals with links to ‘foreign bodies’ that somehow threaten national security. Targets could be affiliates of international organizations that are critical of Hong Kong or China, or correspondents and academics suspected as spies or insurrection-plotters.

Probably new powers that in effect tighten control of the press, eg giving enforcement agencies greater powers to investigate suspected secessionist or subversive materials. 

Probably provisions attempting to do something similar with the Internet.

Maybe some sort of measures to counter other ‘soft resistance’ – activities or expressions the authorities wish they could treat as illegal but currently can’t. No-one seems to be able to produce a specific definition; perhaps the best way of looking at it is that if sedition laws aim to limit particular opinions, ‘soft resistance’ targets attitude. Maybe a ‘picking quarrels’ type of offense? Or somehow penalizing lack of sincerity or enthusiasm in expressing loyalty or patriotism? There has been behind-the-scenes controversy over this, but no signs that the authorities will listen to warnings of NatSec ‘overkill’.

Twenty years ago during the first attempt to implement Article 23, there was a serious public consultation exercise – of which many of us have fond or other memories. It is hard to believe that the authorities will be at all flexible with the 2024 edition.

Indeed, transparency of any sort doesn’t seem to be much of a priority. From Transit Jam on Sunday…

An index of 106 Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) and sedition judgements has disappeared from a new Department of Justice (DOJ) webpage just days after its publication, with no explanation forthcoming from DOJ.

Originally launched on Thursday, DOJ’s “Annotations” webpage featured a useful and comprehensive index of all NSL- and sedition-related judgements under the NSL regime … in English only – aimed at improving transparency and international understanding of Hong Kong’s national security environment and serving as, according to DOJ, a “convenient and practical tool for promoting national security education and conducting legal research”. At its launch Thursday, Secretary for Justice, Paul Lam said “This body of case-law helps us understand the requirements of our national security laws and how they are being applied by the courts.”

…The index deletion in Hong Kong could signify tension between Hong Kong’s desire to give the international community transparency on NSL and the central government’s handling of “negative social phenomena”, a battle between face and facts. 

Transit Jam’s copy of the site.

Maybe at some point, reputational and overall economic harm will cause policymakers in high places to consider reining in the whole NatSec thing. But not in 2024.

The Hong Kong government says the city’s freedoms are better protected now we have the NatSec Law. HKFP reports…

In a three-page report to the UN Human Rights Council published on Saturday, authorities said Hong Kong had taken a “major turn from chaos to governance” after the security legislation and measures ensuring only “patriots” can run in elections were implemented.

“Hong Kong society has put the volatile situation behind it, and the rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents are better protected in a safer and more orderly environment,” the report read.

Dozens of civil society groups have shut down since [the NatSec Law’s introduction], while independent media outlets have also closed following police raids and the arrests of top executives.

A thread from Renaud Haccart…

Some factual changes in HK in the past 4 years: fewer functioning political parties, elections with less diverse candidates, public demonstration where [organizers] get “invited for tea” by the police and in several cases suddenly withdraw their applications, less diverse media.

We can also add elections where less of the outcome depends on HK people’s opinions, leading to a legislative branch that’s less able to reflect the diverse opinions of HKers, and an executive that now controls candidacy at elections. Some public records are harder to consult.

It’s hard to find a single law, governmental measure or change in attitude from the authorities that have gone in the direction of more freedom in the past 4 years. Quite the opposite.

A few between-long-weekends things…

HKFP on activists trying to get the government to stop paving over rural paths…

“Because [the government] does not have any conservation standards to follow, the default option is, of course, to use concrete.”

Could we say this campaign is pro-‘soft resistance’?

From the Carter Center’s US-China Perception Monitor, a translation of an article by Mainland political scientist Hu Wei reflecting on Deng Xiaoping’s thoughts on reform and opening up. While paying due deference to the current official lines and slogans, he implicitly criticizes the current leadership’s direction…

Whether moving towards  modernization, the world, and the future, or regressing to tradition, self-seclusion, and absolutism, is the litmus test for judging whether to continue reform and opening up. Among them, how to handle relations with the West, especially the United States, is a key prerequisite for the success of China’s modernization. Many people always believe that the U.S. seeks to destroy China, which does not conform to the historical facts of reform and opening up and contradicts Deng’s initial judgment about war and peace. Even if the U.S. harbors such intentions, they should be resolved rather than intensified. If we oppose everything the U.S. supports and support everything against the U.S., Sino-US relations will definitely not improve. The deterioration of current Sino-US relations deserves deep reflection, and how to escape the “Thucydides Trap” requires greater wisdom.

The Diplomat on the rise of extreme Han ethno-nationalism in China…

…non-Han dynasties, particularly the Mongol-led Yuan and Manchu-led Qing, complicate China’s ethno-national identity. The Qing era (1644-1911), often viewed by Han nationalists as colonial rule, is especially contentious within the Imperial Han faction, which rejects its contribution to the Han legacy.

…This movement is more than nostalgia. It represents a complex mix of pride, identity, and ambition for global recognition … this movement now significantly influences Beijing’s narratives and policies. 

A group the author calls ‘Radicals’ are the ‘most assertive’. Then you have the more wishy-washy types, like…

The Conservative Faction: More restrained in territorial claims, conservatives base their aspirations on ancient Chinese literature and records. They advocate for a China that mirrors territorial descriptions from these texts, encompassing an ambitiously large area from Lake Baikal in Siberia to the Rocky Mountains in North America. 

Their approach also includes aggressive strategies against perceived historical violators of the Han people, with extreme suggestions like using nuclear force as retaliation for past aggressions, specifically against Japan for its actions in World War II.

Well, quite.

A video of Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu opening presents from Santa. They are items from around the world that China has barred from importing for political reasons. 

Standard editorial asks why few Japanese tourists come to Hong Kong any more. It’s not just that the city is expensive…

…it is thought that news reports – like the one concerning a Hong Kong youngster jailed for making seditious social media posts after returning from Japan where she had been studying politics – don’t help the situation.

Then, import bans maintained by the SAR on seafood from certain Japanese prefectures due to nuclear wastewater discharge may have contributed to the perception.

The government has invested tens of millions of dollars in a rebranding program to relaunch Hong Kong.

If the investment has failed to change how the Japanese think about the city, could it have also failed to improve how other nationals perceive it?

The Yuen Ching-ting case. Agnes Chow is also popular in Japan. Here’s something else: Marilyn Tang, the sister-in-law of jailed activist Lee Cheuk-yan, is given six months in prison for ‘perverting the course of justice’. After her sister was arrested on NatSec charges, Tang visited the apartment and removed her sister’s phone and laptop, which was potential evidence. But in fact, police later found no evidence she had tampered with the devices, nor found anything incriminating on them.

Some holiday reading and viewing…

China File on how Hong Kong bolsters China’s arguments at international forums like the UN…

Where once HKSAR delegates to the UN sat silently through meetings and offered only brief replies to direct questions, they now serve as proactive cheerleaders for Beijing. The tone and substance of their contributions largely echo those of the PRC, effectively endorsing the PRC’s values, language, and behavior.

From last week – Asia Sentinel reports that some 70 officers in China’s rocket force might have been arrested, and Qin Gang might have been executed. (Might – but how much would you bet otherwise?)…

Since China’s missile secrets have fallen into Washington’s hands, it will cost trillions of yuan (hundreds of billions of dollars) for the Chinese government to reconfigure its missile system, another analyst said. This huge amount of money could have been spent on improving the Chinese people’s livelihood, said the analyst who declined to be named.

…Two sources told Asia Sentinel that Qin was executed a few months ago, but we have been unable to verify this. In addition to these two sources, a professor believes Qin is either executed or serving a life sentence in prison.

“We may never see old Qin and his lovely girlfriend again. Sad. They will serve at least life in prison,” a professor said.

Michael Pettis in the FT on why China’s debt is a symptom, not a cause, of the country’s economic problems…

the losses associated with the misallocation of investment over the past 10-15 years were capitalised, rather than recognised. In proper accounting, investment losses are treated as expenses, which result in a reduction of earnings and net capital. If, however, the entity responsible for the investment misallocation is able to avoid recognising the loss by carrying the investment on its balance sheets at cost, it has incorrectly capitalised the losses, ie converted what should have been an expense into a fictitious asset.

The result is that the entity will report higher earnings than it should, along with a higher total value of assets. But this fictitious asset by definition is unable to generate returns, and so it cannot be used to service the debt that funded it.

China Books Review’s best of 2023.

Translated by Geremie Barme – a learned conversation on the meaning of China’s ‘blank paper’ protests just over a year ago.

From Asia Nikkei, more on Chinese officials’ attempts to alter a French museum exhibition on the Mongols, resulting in a boost in Mongolia’s ‘soft power’ and in Franco-Mongolian relations…

“They told us, ‘Don’t use the words Genghis Khan, don’t use the words Mongol empire. You’ve used the phrase Yuan dynasty (which ruled China for a century from the time of Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan) — don’t use it.’ Well, that’s difficult. You can’t have an exhibition about Genghis Khan without mentioning Genghis Khan.”

…the planned French exhibition coincided with a Chinese crackdown on Mongol language and culture, the latest phase of a drive that had already suppressed Tibetans and Uyghurs in western China and was designed to emphasize the dominance of the majority Han people as part of a campaign to impose the idea of a continuous Chinese history over five millennia.

The fact that China was conquered by the Mongol empire under Genghis Khan and his successors was an inconvenient truth that did not fit into this simplified version of the country’s history.

…The government of Mongolia … offered to step in with newly unearthed artifacts from its own museums … The museum and Mongolia are now considering mounting a traveling exhibition that could reach as far as the U.S. and Australia.

…The text that the Chinese wanted to accompany the Genghis Khan exhibition denied the Mongol emperor’s record in linking East and West and preparing the ground for a Pax Mongolia in Eurasia, according to Guillet. Instead, the Chinese proposal “gave us nomadic tribes who benefited from the great culture of China, who were Sinocized and came under the sway of Han culture — and we said ‘No.'”

‘Han-centric nationalism and revisionism is a sign of a cultural inferiority complex.’ Discuss.

Some light viewing on YouTube…You’ve heard the song (Hump, Mireille), now see the movie: Les Bicyclettes de Belsize – a sort-of-cult swinging 60s short (25 mins) film that vanished soon after its release. Not exactly riveting (maybe fast forward through some of the singing), but some nice camera work.

Two special Christmas gifts. An outstanding seasonal song by Scott Walker if you click on the pic above, celebrating an event I saw on CNN at the White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou at Xmas 1989. And no link, but a short extract from a piece titled 不断构筑中华民族共有精神家园（深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想）–理论-中国共产党新闻网: CCP theoretician Pan Yue on building a shared spiritual homeland…

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes: ‘Culture is the soul of a nation, and cultural identification is the root of national unity.’ ‘We should focus on building a modern civilization of the Chinese nation and continuously construct a shared spiritual homeland for the Chinese nation.’ General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important discourse points out the direction and provides the fundamental guidance for us to do well in the Party’s work on ethnic affairs in the new era. We must deeply understand the decisive significance of the ‘Two Establishes’, enhance the ‘Four Consciousnesses’, strengthen the ‘Four Confidences’, and achieve the ‘Two Upholds’. We should deeply study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Culture, fully implement and execute General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important ideas on strengthening and improving work related to ethnic groups. Centering on forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation, focusing on building a modern civilization of the Chinese nation, we should advance the construction of a shared spiritual homeland for the Chinese nation.. 

The outstanding innovativeness of Chinese civilization has shaped the creative spirit of reform and innovation of the Chinese national community. The Chinese nation has always created its material, spiritual, and political civilizations with the spirit of ‘renewing daily, renewing endlessly’, standing as the most prosperous and powerful civilization in the world for a long period of history. The innovativeness of Chinese civilization has always been the internal driving force of historical development, allowing the Chinese nation to continuously renew and innovate. As the faithful inheritors and promoters of Chinese excellent traditional culture, the Communist Party of China, with the light of Marxist truth, has activated the genes of Chinese civilization, promoting the creative transformation and innovative development of Chinese excellent traditional culture. The Chinese nation has continuously achieved new accomplishments in economic development, institutional construction, cultural construction, social governance, and technological transformation..

There’s more…

An SCMP op-ed laments the ‘patriots only’ District Council elections for their poor turnout, low level of diversity and the system’s overall lack of popular participation…

The dismal turnout for the latest election is a stark reminder of waning community engagement in Hong Kong, a reflection of a growing disconnect between people and their communities.

…While it is important to establish limits, excessively rigid restrictions risk dampening people’s enthusiasm and stifling their sense of belonging. Genuine community integration calls for more than superficial connections; it demands the public’s deep-rooted engagement and a profound connection to the community they call home.

…The crux of people’s sense of belonging lies in their active participation in community affairs. Hongkongers must be given a say in social matters and be able to actively contribute to community development. To achieve this, the government must prioritise the fortifying of public consultation processes, within and beyond the district council.

…One effective approach is to incorporate people from diverse backgrounds into district consultation committees, casting a wider net of perspectives to shape community decisions. By fostering collaboration and actively involving residents, we have the opportunity to weave together a tightly knit and prosperous community.

The piece is written by legislative councillor Tik Chi Yuen of the ‘Third Side’ mini-party, who is the nearest thing the chamber has to a token non-establishment member. 

The lack of public engagement isn’t an accidental by-product of the ‘all patriots’ system – it’s the whole purpose. In a top-down Leninist structure, the ruling party cannot share power or allow any rival political forces or independent institutions, or even civil society. The genuine political process takes place behind closed doors, not with ‘public participation’. Consultative bodies are in practice appointed by the ruling party, and their activities are stage-managed as shows of support for the government. Hence the near-unanimous votes of approval in China’s National People’s Congress (or in today’s LegCo).

If you want the public to be connected with the political process, you have to let them take part – running in elections and voting for the candidates they want. If you don’t let them do that, it’s because you don’t want them to have any input. The public obey the government, not the other way round. (I assume Tik knows all this.)

Of course, followers of Marxist-Leninist theory claim that their model represents the masses through ‘dictatorship of the proletariat’. But such systems are famously intolerant of criticism and protest.

On which note, three more items…

Hong Kong drops 17 places in the Fraser Institute’s latest Human Freedom Index, which reflects the state of things as of 2021. In 2010, it held third place; it is now 46th.

Not everyone might agree with the Index’s exact methodology, but Switzerland and New Zealand come at the top and places like Saudi, Venezuela, Myanmar and Syria at the bottom. The report says…

Given ongoing attacks on freedom in Hong Kong, we will be surprised if future reports do not show a continuing and pronounced degradation in the territory’s ratings, including a noticeable decline in economic freedom.

An HKFP op-ed on the Hong Kong authorities’ apparent fear of the gay rights movement…

…the size of the gay community in Hong Kong may be precisely the reason to suppress it. The Chinese party-state, and presumably its minions in Hong Kong, seems to see every minority of any size as a potential threat. The larger the minority, the larger the perceived threat, and thus the greater the perceived need to control or subdue it.  

The government comes up with interesting arguments against a previous court ruling against an injunction to ban dissemination of the song Glory to Hong Kong…

The song boosted people’s morale and encouraged them to “do things they were not prepared to do,” [senior counsel Benjamin] Yu argued.

“When you try to upset the government, you don’t necessary need to use conventional weapons… the song is regarded by the composer himself as a weapon,” Yu told the court.

Despite the implementation of the national security law, Glory to Hong Kong remained prevalent and continued to “arouse emotions.” It was mistaken as Hong Kong’s national anthem more than 800 times, Yu said citing an estimation by the police.

So will they be coming for YouTube? I mean – boosting people’s morale like that?

Good news for writers of the Hong Kong government’s wrathful press statements: the overseas media have other things to look at than the Jimmy Lai trial. The bad news: the other things include Hong Kong’s dwindling stature as a financial hub.

Bloomberg looks back at a pretty bad 2023…

It was supposed to be the year Hong Kong rebounded onto the world stage, leaving behind an era marred by street clashes, political crackdowns and Covid curbs.

Instead, 2023 turned out to be one of the worst for the financial hub in recent memory, at least as far as its markets are concerned.

The Hang Seng Index has fallen 16%, losing ground [in terms of market cap] to rivals in Tokyo and Mumbai, and putting it among the biggest decliners globally. Funds raised by initial public offerings are the smallest since the dotcom bubble burst. Home sales are on track to be the lowest for any year since records began in in 2002. Office rents have fallen to levels last seen 13 years ago.

Underscoring the malaise, the city has been dubbed the “ruins of an international financial center” on Chinese social media, a viral label rejected by financial services chief Christopher Hui.

…In a sign that Beijing is growing concerned, officials from China’s Ministry of Finance traveled to the city last week to meet with bankers from firms including HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc to discuss ways to bolster the city’s hub status.

…Further deterioration next year would likely increase doubt over the Lee administration’s ability to meet the demands of an international city, and undercut Xi’s efforts to increase foreign direct investment needed to shore up China’s struggling economy.

One main reason is that the HS Index is dominated by Mainland companies, and China’s demographics, debt problems and ideology are all dragging on the country’s economy. Another is that Hong Kong’s own ideological rectification – including political trials – is bound to worry investors. The FT says…

[Hong Kong] now finds itself hitched to a slowing mainland economy. Additionally, competition from Chinese capital markets and a political crackdown by Beijing have left Hong Kong facing “an existential crisis as a major international financial centre,” according to [economics academic] Eswar Prasad

…Journalists, businessmen and lawyers have been arrested under security charges. The judges that preside over such cases are handpicked by Hong Kong’s top officials and there is a 100 per cent conviction rate. Local authorities have increasingly adopted tactics similar to those of mainland China against dissidents and others, including televised “confessions” and forced “repentance” letters.

…Faced with what a range of lawyers, bankers, professors and economists who spoke to the Financial Times describe as a “new reality”, foreign businesses and expats have continued to leave the city, their places taken by mainland firms and citizens.

It now seems to be ‘NatSec first’ rather than ‘business first’. In the Mainland, the SCMP reports that China’s state security ministry – not the economics one – warns about pessimistic comment on the economy as a national security threat…

“Talk concerning China’s decline is in essence an intention to create a ‘narrative trap’ or a ‘cognitive distortion’,” it said.

“It aims to doubt or deny China’s socialist system and attempts to strategically contain China’s development.

…“We still wonder if normal discussions about the problems of the economy will inadvertently cross the vague red line, now that Beijing clearly wants us to focus on the bright prospects.”

SCMP’s former editor notes in an op-ed that Beijing’s leadership wants ‘stronger economic propaganda and public opinion guidance to promote a positive narrative about the Chinese economy’…

The new directive seems to target online commentators and analysts who write research reports for clients at brokerages, consultancies and think tanks. Many online pundits have already seen their social media accounts suspended because of their frank and honest comments, and analysts have been warned they must be careful in their choice of words when writing about the Chinese economy.

One Hong-Kong-based fund manager told me that when sales people from Chinese brokers come to meet him, they first flash PowerPoint presentations on the bright prospects of the Chinese economy. After the presentation, they go on to share what they really think.

How is it possible to restore confidence if one has to be economical with the truth? No wonder the stock markets in Hong Kong and on the mainland fell on Wednesday, the first trading day after the work conference statement was released.

For a quarter-century or so, Hong Kong was a great place for stock investors because it was volatile – which can be fun – yet riding a major long-term uplift from China’s reform-driven post-Mao recovery. Reuters offers reasons why the great ‘maximum bullish’ days are finally over…

China likely grew 5%-or-so in 2023, outrunning the global economy. However, beneath that headline is the fact China invests more than 40% of its output – twice as much as the United States – suggesting a significant portion of that is unproductive.

That means many Chinese don’t feel that growth. Youth unemployment topped 21% in June, the last set of figures before China controversially stopped reporting.

University graduates who studied for advanced-economy jobs are now taking up low-skilled positions to make ends meet while others have seen their wages cut.

In an economy where 70% of household wealth is parked in property, home owners are feeling poorer. Even in one of the few bright spots of the economy, the electric vehicle sector, a price war is causing pain downstream for suppliers and workers.

The national pessimism could present President Xi Jinping with social stability risks, analysts say. If China does slip into a Japan-style decline, it would do so before ever achieving the kind of development Japan did.

The next 80 days look likely to put Hong Kong’s image through the shredder.

A succinct description of Jimmy Lai’s trial …

A hand-picked judge, no jury, denied his first choice of lawyer, & Beijing already suggested he’s guilty. Faces life in jail.

Also, ultra-high-level security around the courthouse…

Remember that the theatrics — the marathon trial, the 1000 police, the bomb truck, CSP Steve Li attending court etc — are themselves a political message: They inflate Lai’s culpability.

More on the scene outside the court here.

The first day starts with his lawyers arguing that the sedition charge (not the more serious NatSec one) should be discarded on statute-of-limitations grounds.

The Hong Kong government feels the need to stress that…

…all cases, including that of Lai Chee-ying, concerning the National Security Law are handled strictly on the basis of evidence and in accordance with the law.

In a statement, the Hong Kong SAR Government pointed out that as the legal proceedings involving Lai Chee-ying are still ongoing, it is inappropriate for any person to comment on the details of the case.

Global Times  (which is not just ‘any person’) weighs in on the trial…

…[against] which some Western media and political figures have launched a public opinion campaign by badmouthing the city’s rule of law and the National Security Law (NSL) for Hong Kong. Legal experts said begging external forces to support Lai and undermining the rule of law in Hong Kong are destined to be futile. 

These instigations of the Western media, politicians and organizations openly calling for the release of Lai and criticizing the rule of law in Hong Kong are extremely dangerous and irresponsible, some experts said. While some Western politicians and media hail Lai as “an anti-government hero” and “a pro-democracy fighter,” such campaign of smearing Hong Kong will also allow local residents to see clearly the true nature of Lai as a proxy for Western interests, they noted. 

The Washington Post reports on the conditions in which the ‘HK 12’ were held in Shenzhen. The 12 include Andy Li described by HKDC as…

…defendant-turned-prosecution-witness in JimmyLai’s trial … mistreated while in Chinese prison after he was caught trying to escape HongKong … remanded in an HK psychiatric facility, & has no independent legal representation.

As the WaPo reporter puts it…

Andy Li is one of the listed prosecution witnesses in Lai’s case — but our investigation questions whether his testimony and evidence can be seen as reliable, given the circumstances in which it was derived

From the paywalled WaPo piece…

Li, a 33-year-old gifted programmer who during the protests became a significant player in international lobbying and fundraising efforts, has already pleaded guilty under the national security law for his own role in the democracy movement, and he is expected to tie Lai to an alleged foreign conspiracy against Hong Kong and China.

But Li was mistreated while in Chinese custody, a year-long Washington Post examination of the case found, raising questions about whether his testimony will be voluntary and reliable. The Post’s reporting reveals previously undisclosed details about the coercive treatment of the 12 escapees, especially Li, by Chinese authorities, and Li’s reemergence and continued detention in Hong Kong after seven months of isolation in China.

…For the first three months, according to several people familiar with the conditions, they were confined to these solitary cells, where two guards on shift took turns to watch them around-the-clock, even as they went to the bathroom. The lights were always on. During the day, they were forced to sit cross-legged on a concrete stool until their joints grew sore, except during mealtimes or interrogations. Walking around the cell was generally not permitted. At night, they were awakened at random hours, for no apparent reason. They were never allowed outside.

…Most of the 12 were not physically abused, but seven people familiar with conditions at the center said screaming could “consistently” be heard coming from one cell: Li’s.

“It is likely that what [Li] faced inside was 10 times worse” than the rest, one person said.

Kevin Carrico’s advice…

Please, be a decent human being and remember that this is a show trial meant to imprison a critic of the regime, possibly for life.

Don’t take the charges and arguments seriously, don’t try to make sense of things –  it’s a show trial

Jimmy Lai’s NatSec trial starts today. This is the highest-profile NatSec prosecution so far, and – let’s say – has the potential to leave Hong Kong’s reputation for rule of law in worse shape than before. Supporters lining up in the cold overnight. UK Foreign Secretary’s statement.

Samuel Bicket on the role of judges in the lead-up to the trial, which starts today (site blocked in Hong Kong, at least from my ISP, so VPN or other workaround needed)…

For 80 days, a pre-ordained theater will unfold in which the Department of Justice will present evidence of Lai’s political connections abroad, and the three complicit judges will ensure the process is smooth for the prosecution and difficult for the defense. When it’s over, Lai will be convicted and sentenced to an obscene prison term—probably for the rest of his life.

…The trial will be long—it is slated to last for months—and it will be a media circus. Conviction is inevitable. Success for Lai’s sympathizers will be measured by the length of the sentence: anything less than life without parole might be seen as a victory, even if the 70-year-old Lai would be unlikely to see freedom again either way.

Yet, for the CCP’s Enemy Number 1, it was never going to be sufficient for Lai to remain free over the years it took for the Hong Kong DOJ and courts to reach this point. Nor would it even be enough for Lai to be detained on remand, where he would still be imprisoned but would be allowed daily visitors, outside food, and a more relaxed environment.

Instead, over the past several years the DOJ and judiciary worked hand-in-hand to charge, convict, and sentence Lai on a series of increasingly absurd public order and fraud charges. As a result, Lai has been serving time as a convicted prisoner for years.

…judges have bent over backwards to reach convictions on the most tenuous of evidence, then sentenced Lai to prison terms well beyond any semblance of rationality.

In the Guardian…

The trial, which is being held in open court, will be an opportunity to attract public attention to his case, even if the verdict is considered to be a foregone conclusion.

In November the security minister, Chris Tang, said the trial would allow the public to see how “bad” Lai’s alleged offences are. Tang has previously praised the 100% conviction rate in national security cases.

Fiona O’Brien, the UK bureau director of Reporters Without Borders, said: “This is no time for equivocation: if the UK government really believes in press freedom – as it says it does – it cannot stand silently by while a British citizen is condemned to die in jail because of what he published.”

More from Reuters …

Foreign envoys, business people and legal scholars will be watching the trial closely, saying it looms as a fresh diplomatic flashpoint and a key test for the city’s judicial independence and freedoms under the sweeping national security law imposed by China in 2020.

…”Any talk of justice would be a farce,” Sebastien Lai, one of his sons, told Reuters from London, where he recently met the British Foreign Secretary David Cameron. “Everyone knows it’s going to be a show trial.”

….Lai’s plight has also highlighted some of the contradictions faced by Hong Kong as it seeks to rejuvenate its reputation as a global financial centre with national security now a policy prerogative under China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

Lai’s listed company Next Digital had its assets frozen after a mass police raid on its headquarters, and bankers were threatened, essentially crippling operations and forcing its shutdown.

Those contradictions aren’t going away… Hong Kong’s pre-2020 establishment – bureaucrats, tycoons, international business – do not seem to be at ease with a more authoritarian atmosphere and are clearly distressed by the damage done to Hong Kong’s reputation by the NatSec measures, the Covid regulations and the city’s new exposure to Beijing’s increasingly hardline ideology. Old-style figures like Anthony Cheung, Abraham Shek and even Regina Ip have voiced at least some implicit criticism of the less pluralistic, less tolerant new order. Business types with family and shareholders’ fortunes in the game recite the new official lines, but not exactly with enthusiasm. They try to convince themselves that the worst is over, and Hong Kong is ‘back to normal’ and ‘open for business’.

And then along comes the new ascendant NatSec establishment: ex-cops now heading up the government, once-marginalized United Front groups, opportunists in the professions, and Mainland officials in the background. And the ‘back to normal’ message is drowned out by shrill CCP-style press statements, million-dollar bounties on overseas dissidents, arrests of ever-more obscure individuals on sedition charges, patriotism in schools and museums, denunciations of gay rights, and on and on – now Jimmy Lai. At the end of last week, the NatSec Law was suddenly amended to allow the authorities to seize suspects’ assets for beyond two years.

Hong Kong authorities offer HK$1 million bounties on another five overseas activists, including Joey Siu – who, as a US citizen, seems to be wanted for colluding with her own government – and former UK consulate staffer Simon Cheng. Standard report.

Apparently anticipating criticism, both the Hong Kong government and its Security Bureau issue statements saying they ‘strongly’ and ‘continuously and fully’ support their own police force’s NatSec department. From the SB’s…

The Police have the responsibility to pursue those who have allegedly committed offences under the National Security Law outside Hong Kong. As with the eight persons who have been put on the wanted list earlier, the five persons concerned have fled overseas and allegedly continued to commit offences under the National Security Law. Their malicious acts to endanger national security have been seen through by all, and there is no doubt that they have clearly and seriously endangered national security. As the law enforcement department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region safeguarding national security, the Police are duty bound to put the five persons on the wanted list in accordance with the law and the action is fully justified,” a spokesman for the SB said.

“No matter how countries and politicians harbouring these absconders unreasonably smear the action, the Police will continue to take all necessary measures steadfastly and fearlessly to prevent, suppress and impose punishment for acts and activities endangering national security in accordance with the law, upholding the principle that ‘laws are observed so as to bring offenders to account’, with a view to safeguarding national security,” the spokesman continued.

From AP…

In Washington, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller condemned the “egregious actions taken by Hong Kong authorities in announcing national security law changes and a new bounty list targeting democracy advocates overseas.”

“That shows blatant disregard for international norms for democracy and human rights,” he said. “Hong Kong authorities have no jurisdiction within United States borders where the advocates for democracy and freedom will continue to enjoy their constitutionally guaranteed freedom and rights.”

NatSec police also arrest four people locally for donating to Nathan Law and Ted Hui through online crowdfunding platforms. (How do the authorities know they donated? What about the thousands of people who contributed to the legal aid fund?) Ronny Tong opines that watching wanted exiles’ YouTube channels might count as giving financial aid.

The Standard says Chief NatSec Superintendent Steve Li adds an appeal to Agnes Chow…

“I hope she can seize the opportunity to return to Hong Kong so she will not become a fugitive,” he said. “Otherwise, if she does not return to Hong Kong and report to us on time we will put her on the wanted list.”

Chow had claimed she was required by police to visit Shenzhen in exchange for the return of her passport.

The condition of bail “is not absolutely rigid and we are open to discussion,” Li responded to that claim.

While she considers, TVB broadcasts another video recantation by jailed protester Tong Ying-kit. And the Jimmy Lai NatSec trial starts Monday.

Some reading for the weekend…

As HK Chinese U fires its vice-president for signing a petition opposing reform of the institution’s council, the BBC reports on declining academic freedom in Hong Kong…

[A 30-something humanities academic] says his nightmare is being named and attacked by Beijing-backed media, which could cost him his job, or worse, his freedom. That fear has swept through Hong Kong’s universities and academic circles, which once attracted top talent. The city was close to the mainland, yet far enough to host progressive classrooms, world-class libraries and archives that allowed academic freedom, even in Chinese studies.

But that is no longer the case, academics and students tell the BBC, many choosing to stay anonymous out of fear. In the academic year 2021/22, more than 360 scholars left Hong Kong’s eight public universities. The turnover rate – 7.4% – is the highest since 1997, when Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule, according to official data. Foreign student enrolments have dropped by 13% since 2019.

“The free atmosphere that existed is gone and people are worried,” says Stephan Ortmann, a political scientist at the Hong Kong Metropolitan University. He says many of his colleagues have left and those that remain are wary – he has heard of teachers who have removed all Hong Kong and China-related material from their courses.

Winners of this week’s Yes We’re Desperate Award goes to the Hong Kong Tourism Board for offering free restaurant meals to Hong Kong people to induce them to… visit Hong Kong.  (The HKTB is funded by a levy on hotels, right? So you could say this is a subsidy to residents from tourists.)

A Standard editorial wonders whether the Lantau islands reclamation mega-project is really going to happen…

The rail and road network masterplan revealed by Transport Secretary Lam Sai-hung has offered the strongest evidence that former chief executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s Lantau Tomorrow Vision has ceased to be a priority – if not quietly left on the shelf to gather dust.

After Beijing’s officials increased de-facto control over Hong Kong in 2019-20, the bureaucrats’ longstanding insistence that all that underutilized land in the New Territories couldn’t be used for housing was dropped and the Northern Metropolis unveiled. That left the Lantau reclamation redundant – unless you were eying multi-billion dollar contracts. But with reserves dwindling, even the biggest white-elephant fans must be having second thoughts. ‘Stupid’ is one thing; ‘no money’ is another.

Several Western commenters offer views on China’s collapsing birth rate. Carl Minzner…

Totaling 17.86 million in 2016, [births] slid to 9.56 million in 2022, a roughly 50 percent decline in six years. 

…Wang [Pei’an], one of the top leaders of the enforcement bureau previously charged with enforcing China’s harsh one-child limit, is now channeling new central party directives and pivoting in the direction of pronatalism. His is not the language of individual choice, nor of helping China’s youth recognize their own personal ambitions. Instead, it is an as-yet nascent framework for—yet again—telling Chinese youth what the state expects them to do with respect to marriage and childbirth. 

And that is a serious problem. It points to a steady re-politicization of some of the most private choices facing Chinese citizens. 

Inside Asian Gambling publishes an open letter from Alvin Chow, boss of Suncity casino junket operator ‘sentenced to 18 years in prison on charges of fraud, triad offences and illegal gambling’. He claims the charges and punishment were excessive. 

National Interest casts doubt on Western governments’ never-ending eagerness to get on with China …

It is illogical to assume that a dystopian communist surveillance state with vast imperial ambitions and an entrenched plan to subvert the U.S.-oriented world order will significantly change course because of economic or diplomatic “engagement.”

Bloomberg on Beijing’s attempts to write the Mongol Empire out of history…

…in the regional capital of Hohhot, the history museum has gotten rid of its “Genghis Khan and His Empire” exhibit, along with any souvenirs featuring him in the gift shop. China last year even passed a law mandating that the Chinese language must be used over Mongolian in order to “safeguard national sovereignty.”

A look back at Taipei’s old ‘combat zone’ – declining into seediness since the end of the Vietnam War at Linsen North Street, Lane 132, of which I have some vague recollections in the late 1980s.

On YouTube: a DW documentary about Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister, and Alex Jones’ ranting as an indie folk song.

After officials pretty much declare that Hong Kong’s Heritage Museum will be ejected to make way for the Science Museum, itself being moved to accommodate a new ‘patriotic’ facility, the Leisure and Cultural Services Department issues an irate press release…

There are recent online accusations by suspected overseas organisations and individuals that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government has decided to abandon the Hong Kong Heritage Museum (HKHM), which will erase a large quantity of invaluable archives and artworks and threaten the preservation of the cultural heritage of Hong Kong. The [LCSD] today (December 13) severely condemned the ill-intentioned parties for spreading false information online and sternly made the following statement to set the record straight.

For anyone on tenterhooks, the rest (one more para) is here.

Expect another angry press statement after jailed activist Chow Hang-tung is awarded a human rights prize…

The 12 winners of the Franco-German Prize for Human Rights and the Rule of Law were announced by the French and German foreign ministries on Tuesday. The award honours “civil society’s commitment to human dignity and the inalienable human rights of all people,” according to press releases issued by the ministries.

…The 38-year-old has been charged and sentenced in relation to Tiananmen vigils in 2020 and 2021. She is awaiting for allegedly inciting subversion under the national security law, and is separately appealing her conviction and sentencing in a security law case over refusing a data request by national security police.

And here it comes…

The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) today (December 13) expressed its strong disapproval of and firm opposition to the ministries of foreign affairs of France and Germany for issuing the so-called “Prize for Human Rights and the Rule of Law” to Chow Hang-tung, who was charged for suspicion of committing offences under the Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL).

A spokesman for the HKSAR Government said, “Chow Hang-tung is facing a criminal prosecution of ‘incitement to subversion’ and the case has been committed to the Court of First Instance of the High Court awaiting trial. The judicial proceedings of the case are still ongoing, but the ministries of foreign affairs of France and Germany have issued the so-called prize to Chow Hang-tung in the name of ‘human rights’ and the ‘rule of law’, which is obviously contrary to the spirit of respecting the rule of law. The HKSAR Government strongly urges these foreign countries to respect the spirit of the rule of law, abide by the international law and basic norms that govern international relations, and immediately stop interfering in the affairs of Hong Kong.

Etc, etc. This is a relatively mild rebuke by the (so-called) standards of these things, perhaps reflecting Beijing’s eagerness to maintain good relations with the Europeans. (Do the editors at the Information Services Dept deliberately not polish away the clunky Mainland phrasing as a form of ‘soft resistance’? Or are they under threat of disciplinary inspection if they dare make the copy less alienating?)

Now awaiting an indignant official press release aimed at the Asian Corporate Governance Association, for knocking Hong Kong from joint second to joint sixth in its rankings… 

Dual class listings, “homecoming” secondary issuers and pre-revenue biotech firms now account for 20% of market cap, and they play by a set of very different – and much weaker – rules. Five out of the top ten companies by market cap are either secondary, or weighted voting right, listings. Nearly 10% of Hang Seng Index constituents now fall into this category. Capital market development has focussed on attracting more of the same, and with the continuing lowering of entry requirements and rules applicable to these issuers, the rights, and safeguards available to investors have diminished…

…The long-stated separation of powers at the heart of Hong Kong’s governance have been declared void and judges are palpably under pressure to respect the boundaries of an executive-led system. A reconfigured legislative council which prioritises patriotism may be more prone to give the government an easier time with its lawmaking programme. Indeed, ACGA was disappointed that changes to company law allowing virtual AGMs (after the pandemic) passed with no detailed debate, and at breakneck speed. 

Hong Kong’s score in Civil Society & Media also fell significantly. The shuttering of media outlets and wariness of reporters to cross red lines has stifled a once-vibrant fourth estate. Notably absent from the media landscape today are the cohort of scandal-chasing tabloids who helped to keep the tycoons and company directors on their toes, as well as the deep-dive data investigators among the foreign press who delved into the uncomfortable business interests of the elite. Not helping matters has been the curtailed access to director and company information: the ability to shine a light on corporate digressions is much compromised. Nor do academics in Hong Kong seem to pontificate on the governance issues of the day: a reported exodus of university scholars is evident when searching for research on Hong Kong CG issues. Today it is more likely that a research piece on stock market reform or weighted voting rights will be penned by an academic in Singapore or the PRC, than in Hong Kong. 

Meanwhile China’s Ministry of Finance is hosting a gathering of bankers in Hong Kong to ‘bolster the city’s status as a hub’. Bloomberg reports…

The discussions will center on how to enhance Hong Kong’s position as an international finance center, its risks and challenges, and how strengthening ties with mainland China can help consolidate its status as a hub, the people said. The ministry didn’t respond to a fax seeking a comment.

Hong Kong is facing big challenges… The city has seen tens of thousands of residents emigrate after years of strict Covid curbs and as China tightened its political grip. Dealmaking has all but dried up as China’s economy struggles to rebound to past levels, with major banks cutting staff and shifting out of the city. Scores of smaller brokerages have shut down.

…City leaders have been adamant that Hong Kong is open for business and not losing its luster…

But leaders have also maintained a heavy focus on national security, even years after protests were quashed, hundreds of people were arrested and newspapers were shuttered.

The city’s leader, former policeman John Lee, last week defended his focus on national security, saying most of his policies are on other matters, according to city broadcaster RTHK. At the same time, he warned that criticizing government policies on housing and the economy could be a form of “soft resistance.”

More angry official responses: Beijing attacks the UK Foreign Secretary for meeting a UK citizen about another UK citizen jailed overseas.

The government announces 179 appointed members of District Councils, chosen for their patriotism…

A government spokesman said the appointed councillors were of “high calibre who love the country and Hong Kong” and they received their seats under the “principle of meritocracy”.

Quite a few of them were among the losers in the 2019 polls – so I guess that means they rank somewhere in a meritocracy.

My prediction that there would be fewer brown people in all Hong Kong District Councils combined than in the UK cabinet was right: there is one Pakistani and one Nepali among the 179. 

After all the overseas coverage of the elections – a few items on the Agnes Chow case… 

An HKFP op-ed…

The idea that Hong Kong people will be moved to horror and revulsion if somebody stays abroad to avoid a national security trial is a bit of a stretch.

…Consider Judge Andrew Chan, who recently told 16 defendants, many of whom have been in custody for approaching three years, that to deliver a verdict at the end of their trial he and his colleagues would need “three to four months”, with “no guarantees” that it would not be longer. This is carrying judicial contempt for the value of other people’s time too far. 

A commentary by academic Eric Lai in the Diplomat – …

“The request for a letter of repentance as part of the deal for releasing her travel documents is, obviously, not part of the criminal procedure under either local law or the NSL.”…

For many foreign investors, the underlying reason for trusting Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” formula is that their investment could be safeguarded by the standards of the common law in Hong Kong, including the independent court, legal certainty, and the absence of arbitrariness in law enforcement. These elements fundamentally differ from the city’s sovereign state, where laws and courts are subject to the Chinese Communist Party. 

…the Hong Kong government has repeatedly claimed to business groups that the city’s common law and justice system remain robust and impartial, supporting a fair and friendly business environment. 

That said, Chow’s statement inevitably sends a message to global investors that Hong Kong’s enforcement of laws and political powers are more arbitrary than before, as the authorities now consider acts of patriotism as a top cause for gaining freedom of movement and property. Foreign investors would not be eager to receive similar treatment from both Chinese and Hong Kong law enforcement when doing business in the territory…

…given the scant accountability the local police face under the NSL, this whole charade – arrest, seizure of travel documents for indeterminate periods, imposition of arbitrary conditions – could befall anyone in Hong Kong now. 

Transparency is paramount to saving Hong Kong’s image of upholding the rule of law, unless it is merely a façade or slogan. The government should explain publicly whether Chow’s claims are accurate and, if so, what was the legal basis of making such requests on Chow. 

The Economist (paywalled) has more…

…the police and officials in Hong Kong are adopting tools often used on the mainland to control residents. These range from forced confessions and so-called “patriotic tours” to re-education campaigns in prisons. Young people are a particular target. Even as the city tries to woo back tourists and businesses under the banner of “Happy Hong Kong”, its leaders are planning to expand the use of such tactics.

…In order to control people like Ms Chow the government has also developed what it calls a “deradicalisation” programme. This usually takes place in prison. According to officials, hundreds of detainees have taken part. Most were protesters. A young participant called Tsang Chi-kin was recently interviewed for a television series sponsored by Hong Kong’s police. Shot during a pro-democracy protest in 2019 and later arrested, Mr Tsang said the programme taught him to manage his emotions. “We must think clearly before acting to avoid being incited and instigated by others.”

The programme involves meeting a psychologist, studying Chinese history and culture, and attending career-planning sessions. One government video shows detainees playing the drums. They perform a song called “Chinese People”. “I am proud to be Chinese,” says a detainee. “Chinese drums were invented by us Chinese people. I feel very accomplished to be a part of the People’s Republic of China.”

And Asia Nikkei on the Mainland Judgements in Civil and Commercial Matters (Reciprocal Enforcement) Ordinance, which allows Mainland court rulings to be enforced in Hong Kong…

“It’s a double-edged sword,” said Ambrose Lam, a Hong Kong legislator representing the legal constituency. “Even the chambers of commerce said they were worried, because they don’t trust the mainland judicial system.”

…The new rules on reciprocal enforcement add to the ambiguity about the rule of law in Hong Kong, said one private banker who has wealthy Chinese clients. “The authorities like to create this ambiguity, giving them room to maneuver. The ambiguity is enough to scare one to death.”

Another wealth manager said the move would encourage more Chinese to shift their wealth from Hong Kong to places like Singapore or Switzerland.

The Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce did not respond to a request for comment. Several other chambers of commerce in Hong Kong declined to comment.