Big Lychee, Various Sectors

More angst about tourism. The SCMP reports that some 470,000 Mainlanders (the only tourists who matter) visited Hong Kong in the first three days of the lunar new year holiday. They were clogging up the few parts of Central and Wanchai I ventured out to. But that’s still not good enough for the ‘tourism industry’, who complain that, rather than spend big bucks on overpriced garbage, the beastly ingrates… 

…arrive in the city early in the morning and head back to the mainland that same night.

“They would come and walk around the city instead of really spending money here,” [industry person Dicky Yip] said.

On mainland social media platforms Xiaohongshu, terms such as “Hong Kong in a Day” and “Tourist Special Forces ” have gone viral, with posts containing the former amassing more than 54 million views.

Popular posts contain detailed maps and itineraries, with users swapping suggestions on how to see the city’s key attractions in under 24 hours while spending as little as 300 yuan (US$42). Suggestions include saving on transport by taking the tram or eating at local cha chaan teng.

…[Alice] Zhang, a recent graduate who works in marketing, was visiting the city for the first time and had decided to simply walk around to see “scenery that was different from the mainland”, she said.

But even though she had only arrived at around 10am, she would be returning to Shenzhen just 12 hours later, she added.

“One reason is because the hotels are so expensive here,” she said. “And I don’t think there is much else to see to stay longer.”

And of course she’s right. Hong Kong is trying desperately to boost the sheer number of visitors, assuming they will all be the old sort buying/smuggling imported luxury products. Instead, much of the influx comprises young people with limited funds who must have their photo taken posing at a few dozen Weibo-popularized spots. Maybe they will become more adventurous one day? The point is that, as someone who hitched across Europe, North Africa and the US in his teens, I have no problem with kids who don’t do anything for the local economy when they travel. The Hong Kong tourism lobby and bureaucrats, on the other hand, only want visitors who will prop up high rents.

Is Hong Kong Still Worth Visiting? A recent video on Hong Kong from travel guide producer Attache. The producers seem nervous. Not political enough for analysis fans – 2019 isn’t really even mentioned (they had a hard time getting people to talk). And probably too superficial for the hardcore foodies (shots of dai pai dongs). But a genuine tribute to the city from a former resident. “Even though there is something truly heartbreaking going on here, this place is by no means dead.” Pretty good editing, too. 

The Hong Kong police are installing 2,000 CCTV cameras on the streets in the coming year. They already say that’s not enough, and they ‘haven’t ruled out’ facial detection tech. 

By way of reassurance – maybe – Minxin Pei in Foreign Affairs argues that China’s internal security surveillance system relies on informants as much as technology, and therefore cannot be exported elsewhere. Lots of interesting detail on the system…

Beijing’s surveillance state is not only a technological feat. It also relies on a highly labor-intensive organization. Over the past eight decades, the CCP has constructed a vast network of millions of informers and spies whose often unpaid work has been critical to the regime’s survival.

…To avoid creating a rival to its own power, the CCP distributes surveillance tasks to different units in the security forces and other state-affiliated actors. This organizational arrangement has two distinct advantages. It prevents the formation of a powerful secret police that can control the upward flow of information and become a threat to the party. And it enables the party to benefit from the involvement of state-owned enterprises, universities, and other entities that channel information to the government, without increasing the size of the secret police.

…citizens can spy on their colleagues or neighbors, and because their participation is secured by coercion or enticement, it does not cost much to maintain them. Data disclosed by 30 local governments show that between 0.73 percent and 1.1 percent of China’s population—perhaps as many as 15 million people—serve as informants. 

… economic problems will make it harder for Beijing to handle the spiraling costs of maintaining and upgrading its high-tech surveillance equipment. This may be a particular problem for the Skynet and Sharp Eyes projects, which are funded by debt-ridden local governments and are therefore likely to experience mounting challenges in the lean years ahead.

Evil foreign forces take advantage of China’s holiday to engineer another outbreak of ‘smearing’…

In The Atlantic, Timothy McLaughlin laments the local administration’s prioritization of NatSec…

… [CE John] Lee and other city leaders ultimately answer to Beijing, and they are apparently unwilling to make the best of the few remaining elements of the city’s exceptional status. Instead, they are feverishly obsessed with security and with integrating Hong Kong into the mainland. For them, governing appears mainly to consist of mimicking Beijing or trying to predict what it wants from them.

“The biggest obstacle to Hong Kong’s future development is its current political elite,” Wang Xiangwei, an associate professor of practice at Hong Kong Baptist University and a former editor in chief of the South China Morning Post, said on an online talk show last month. Lawmakers should proactively pitch Beijing on their ideas for administering the city, Wang said, and demonstrate that they are capable of taking charge. Instead, he said, “they are trying to guess Beijing’s intentions.”

…Neither lawmakers nor the government is keen to take ownership of Hong Kong’s many problems. In the past, pro-Beijing lawmakers and members of the government blamed the prodemocracy camp for whatever ills befell the city, no matter how scant or nonexistent the evidence. Now the government and lawmakers find themselves with a dilemma of their own making: The old scapegoats are in jail, exiled, or otherwise barred from meaningful political participation, so officials need new culprits to pin their underperformance on.

More often than not, they point to the United States, the West more broadly, or some amalgamation of shadowy outside forces working to destabilize Hong Kong. And they do so by issuing screeds and condemnations whose tone and vocabulary are jarringly incongruous with the government’s past reputation for efficient civil service and lingering British formality. When the U.S. credit-rating agency Moody’s issued a negative outlook for Hong Kong and Macau in December, the city’s No. 2 official went on the radio to claim that the decision was part of a Western-led plot to smear the city as well as the mainland. “Its sole purpose is to use Hong Kong as a means of suppressing the country’s development,” he said. “This is very obvious.”

We don’t know how much the local government’s obsession with NatSec pre-empts rather than follows instructions from Beijing’s officials. In the Mainland, there is a long tradition of overzealous enforcement of orders from Beijing by lower-level bureaucrats afraid of being punished for not going far enough. Perhaps both Mainland officials posted in the city and Hong Kong’s own ministers – some with a background in the disciplined services – feel similar pressure.

In the FT, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley fame – a longstanding China bull – reluctantly concludes as a stock investor that Hong Kong is finished….

Hong Kong’s demise reflects the confluence of three factors. First, domestic politics. For the first 20 years after the handover, its political scene was relatively stable. China was a passive Big Brother. The wheels came off in 2019-20 when, under Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong leadership made the mistake of proposing an extradition arrangement with China that sparked massive pro-democracy demonstrations. China’s response, clamping down through the imposition of a new Beijing-centric national security law, shredded any remaining semblance of local political autonomy. The 50-year transition period to full takeover by the People’s Republic of China had been effectively cut in half.

…It all worked out brilliantly, for longer than anyone expected. And now it’s over.

See also an Atlantic Council report on China’s stock market decline…

It is worth recalling that the first shot in the campaign to rein in online companies was fired at the stock market in 2020, when regulators sank Alibaba Group’s plans to launch an IPO for its Ant Financial subsidiary after Alibaba founder Jack Ma publicly criticized regulators. What followed was a campaign under the banner of Xi’s 2021 call for “common prosperity”—a slogan associated with wealth redistribution that ultimately was directed at various unwelcome capitalist practices. The campaign was muted after it was seen to be undermining business confidence, but the latest broadsides from Beijing may prove unsettling to the markets.

Foreign investors tend to avoid commenting on Chinese political developments. But Lazard Asset Management offered a glimpse of their thinking last year when it wrote, “Factoring political risk into investment decisions will likely also be critical in the months and years ahead, given the scale of uncertainties—including the potential consequences of Common Prosperity.”

And a major US law firm is isolating its Hong Kong operations from its international database – reportedly to prevent local authorities from accessing client information…

…Latham & Watkins is cutting off automatic access to its international databases for its Hong Kong-based lawyers, in a sign of how Beijing’s closer control of the territory is forcing global firms to rethink the way they operate.

…Latham & Watkins is now “treating Hong Kong as the same as mainland China”, one of the people said, as US firms grow wary over Beijing’s closer control of the territory. The law firm declined to comment.

…Latham & Watkins is also separating its Hong Kong office database from the rest of Asia — its offices in Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo — to create a new “Greater China” database shared with the Beijing office, the people said.

…“What it means is if you have . . . raids in Hong Kong, law enforcement [can only] access Hong Kong and China databases,” the second person said.

Officially, of course, rule of law and a free flow of information remain 100% intact. In private, however, some establishment figures might concede that things aren’t exactly what they were – but will be adamant that jury-less NatSec courts, the closure of Apple Daily, the jailing of people for books and T-shirts and so on is all about pan-dems and won’t affect bankers, lawyers, accountants and business folk. The problem is that once the pre-2020 line is crossed, there is no longer an absolute guarantee about who it might happen to. International consulting companies in the Mainland have been raided for doing due-diligence research/suspected ’espionage’; why not here? (Constant talk by Hong Kong officials of evil foreign forces and ‘black hands’ is hardly encouraging.)

Even ordinary people might feel some reduced certainty. For example, pre-2020, you could be 100% confident of accessing your MPF retirement funds provided you met certain well-known conditions to do with age, or work or residency status  Then, out of thin air, the authorities barred emigrants using BNO passports from getting their funds. That’s a precedent. Pre-2020, you could be positive that you wouldn’t be arrested for your T-shirt.

On a less gloomy topic, HKFP looks at Hongkongers in Tamsui. I was in the Taipei suburb just a couple of months ago and can confirm that it’s a pleasant area, complete with some excellent Vietnamese food. (Minor quibble: it’s ‘remote’ in the same way Shatin is, being a half-hour metro ride from town – though it does have a volcano/magma dome underneath it.)

And a video: Visit Hong Kong – you probably won’t be arrested.

OK – I’ve now worked it out. Messi killed JFK. Elvis is still alive – living with Mao in a secret base on the moon. The CIA brainwashed Hong Kong people into thinking unaffordable housing was bad. Covid vaccines turn you into Regina Ip. Tatler magazine upholds 36,000 years of Chinese civilization, but still ends up hurting the feelings. 

It must be true because it says so in the newspaper…

Beijing-controlled media outlet Ta Kung Pao now claims that Messi’s non-performance in HK must be a foreign plot to embarrass HK, because the father of Inter Miami’s owners was apparently a former anti-Castro CIA operative.

All this and Rod Stewart cancels.

Have a good holiday.

I thought Massi-gate would be over once he and his team went off to Japan, give or take an official press statement on nuclear waste at Fukushima. But no. Still angry about Massi’s non-performance in Hong Kong, the SCMP’s Yonden Lhatoo thunders… 

…He sat it out on the bench the entire time, all petulant in pink like some unhappy flamingo – we might as well have been looking at a pouty little ballerina in a tutu throwing a childish sulking fit.

Even if his purported hamstring injury rendered him unable to play – unlikely, because he was on the pitch the previous day for a practice run looking perfectly capable – or even if his minders did not want to risk exacerbating his injury, would it have killed them to at least have their precious princess wave at the crowd, perhaps even say a few words to them?

Not only that, he even refused an invitation from his hosts to give away the trophy after the match and skulked at the back to avoid shaking hands with Hong Kong’s leader and his top officials who were all left red-faced at the scene.

Regina Ip joins in…

Hong Kong people hate Messi, Inter-Miami, and the black hand behind them, for the deliberate and calculated snub to Hong Kong.

Messi should never be allowed to return to Hong Kong. His lies and hypocrisy are disgusting.

Petulant in pink, red faced, black hands, shaking hands (not)? Comments on Regina’s post and elsewhere suggest that the criticism of the soccer star has actually won him some new fans From one…

Is Hong Kong mulling a $1 million bounty on Messi’s head for ‘hurting the feelings of 1.47 billion Chinese people’..? 

Speaking of non-performances – the Standard’s editorial on the cancellation of Accidental Death of an Anarchist at the APA…

The last-minute removal of absurdist satire Accidental Death of an Anarchist by Academy for Performing Arts management has deepened concerns about overkill that rose to the surface when certain books began disappearing one after another from the shelves of public and school libraries last year.

As with books by leading modern Chinese writer Lu Xun – as well as George Orwell’s darkly satirical Animal Farm – Italian playwright Dario Fo’s Accidental Death of an Anarchist was suddenly axed to death.

This is despite the playwright bring named Nobel Laureate in 1997 for his body of work.

…It would be very ironic if it were due to the same degree of stupidity seen in the cases of Lu Xun and Orwell.

…If its performance was deemed acceptable in Hong Kong and the mainland in the past, why is it not acceptable now at a time the SAR is supposed to have grown to be even more confident and prosperous under the “new normal” environment?

Or perhaps not ironic at all.

More NatSec drama here…

Hong Kong performing arts group Fire Makes Us Human has announced it will suspend operations, after a school venue it planned to use for two forthcoming productions was pulled following government pressure.

…The [Education] bureau had allegedly received reports concerning “inappropriate remarks” made by the group founder Alex Tong on “controversial and sensitive issues.” Neither the school nor the bureau would reveal what the reported complaints related to.

Now we’ve got Lionel Messi out of our system, there’s still time for some more Hong Kong is Back to Normal Good Stories before Chinese New Year…

Agnes Chow, age 27 and currently studying in Canada, is officially wanted by police…

Andrew Kan, the deputy commissioner of the national security department … said fleeing from responsibility was “shameful.”

“No fugitive should harbour the illusion that they can leave Hong Kong and evade criminal responsibility,” Kan said in Cantonese. “Unless… Ms. Chow surrenders, she will be pursued for the rest of her life.”

Kan added that Chow was “completely devoid of integrity” and used “deceptive measures” to escape responsibility.

“People like this,” Kan said, had never reflected on their actions or how they had undermined national security. He urged such people to turn themselves in.

Convinced?

(If a newspaper interviews her, is it ‘abetting’ and thus a crime? The Justice Secretary says ‘maybe’. He does know that Hong Kong fully backs the Article 23 NatSec Law – because he hasn’t heard anyone oppose it.) 

Seventy seven-year-old activist Koo Sze-yiu faces his verdict next week…

The activist faced trial on Monday after he pleaded not guilty to “attempting or preparing to do an act with a seditious intention.” He was said to have planned to visit the Registration and Electoral Office (REO) to protest against pro-democracy candidates not being able to run in the overhauled District Council race, which took place on December 10 last year.

…Assistant Electoral Officer Mandy Lau testified for the prosecution on Monday that the REO learned on December 7 that a man – who she later confirmed to be Koo – planned to submit a letter to the officer.

The activist told Lau that he would hand in his petition before 11 am the next day and said the letter contained claims that the District Council election was “unfair” because it had a “screening threshold.”  He added he would bring along a five-feet-tall coffin and joss paper, also known as “ghost money,” as props.

…Under caution, Koo told the police that he had planned to chant slogans at the REO, including “end one-party rule,” local media reported citing the testimony of another officer. The white board had text written on it about supporting sanctions against Hong Kong officials, the policeman said.

And Althea Suen has problems giving her mitigation statement.

For diverting everyone’s attention away from NatSec laws and trials? 

Government people were groveling to the Argentine soccer star. A Standard editorial has more on the ‘PR disaster’…

The Inter Miami-vs-Hong Kong match had been treated as a celebrity event rather than a sports one.

The government pledged last month to host more than 80 mega events in the first half of 2024.

Seems the Chief Executive and other ministers deleted their social media posts ‘sharing the joy’ at the Inter Miami-Hong Kong game.

With embarrassing ‘mega events’ apparently scheduled every couple of days, we are guaranteed more tourism angst. The Tourism Board boss laments the lack of attractions apart from bubble tea and pineapple buns. (Do tourists know that there is no pineapple in the scrofulous-looking delicacies?) His suggestions suggest a paucity of ideas: hipster coffee shops and afternoon English tea at hotels. (English? Hasn’t the guy heard about patriotism?)

In Japan, they take a more robust attitude, scrapping cheap transport deals for visitors and putting up signs telling foreign rabble to behave decently. The lesson for Hong Kong: stop trying so hard – it makes you look sad and desperate. (And make the place nice to live in, and the tourists will pour in of their own accord.)

Meanwhile – newspaper owner influenced editorial. Thank heavens that would never happen at Wen Wei Po, the SCMP, Oriental Daily, etc. More on the Jimmy Lai trial here. 

The Sunbeam Theatre in North Point is famed for a gloriously garish foyer that delights passers-by and Cantonese opera performances that few under-70s find appealing. The site was on offer a few years back for HK$1.2 billion. Now prices have fallen to something more like just one ‘bil’ (been watching Succession), the Island Evangelical Community Church is buying it. Pastor Brett says the property…

will … provide fantastic opportunities to bless the community with meaningful retail space, some limited housing, and great space for ongoing ministry 24/7.

(I know a few members of this congregation. It is evangelical in the religious rather than political sense, but obviously well-heeled.)

‘How can we ask tourists to believe us when Hong Kong holds another major event?’ asks lawmaker Doreen Kwong after the government spends HK$16 million to attract the Inter Milan soccer team to play here, and mega-star Messi sits on the bench the whole game.

[Correction: Inter Miami. Never heard of them.]

Officials seek to reassure that the Article 23 NatSec Law will not infringe people’s rights…

The government is also looking into ways to delay or stop suspects from meeting their lawyers, as [Justice Secretary Paul] Lam said this is to prevent lawyers from being a channel of communication for suspects to continue their behavior to endanger national security.

“The principle of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights is that we cannot unreasonably delay,” Lam said.

“We will balance defendants’ rights to consult a lawyer, but also prevent defendants from abusing this right.

…Secretary for Security Chris Tang Ping-keung said exaggerating legislative or district councillors’ performance to incite hatred might also breach the future Article 23 legislation.

“Whether or not a behavior breaches the law will depend on their intention and consequences,” Tang said.

“It is very reasonable to provide an opinion on people taking public office, but if they exaggerate things, only illustrate one side of the truth or even make up information and are intended to incite hatred, then he or she will breach the law.”

…Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the enactment will be beneficial to “maintain a good business environment” in Hong Kong.

(So you can be arrested for ‘only illustrating one side of the truth’?)

Standard editorial notes…

In the blink of an eye, roughly a quarter of the public consultation period promised for the Article 23 legislation is gone.

From David Webb…

Thought on Sunday from an atheist: if Christians in HK pray to their God that NSL defendants are acquitted & freed, does that constitute requesting a foreign individual to interfere & endanger NatSec, thus a breach of NSL? Will God be at risk of conviction and punishment? 

What if the prayer is spoken in a church?  Does that constitute an NSL offence? Or will there be no case to answer because the Govt cannot prove that God exists, therefor no foreign force is involved?

Some links from the weekend, starting with two from the (paywalled) Economist…

On the Article 23 NatSec Law…

After a four-week public consultation, the new measure is expected to be swiftly passed by the city’s legislature, which is packed with Communist Party supporters. The statute will cover acts such as treason, insurrection and sabotage. The government says it will complement the one imposed by the central government. Some of the acts the new law will proscribe are distinct, such as espionage. Nevertheless, given that the existing law is so broad and ill-defined, it is difficult to conceive of an activity that would fall foul of the new law and not already be covered by the old one, says a barrister in the city.

And on the government’s plans to close the HK Heritage Museum…

[Aruist Kacey Wong] organised a petition calling on the government to keep the Heritage Museum as is and expected around 60 signatures. Some 700 Hong Kongers signed it; many are associated with the pro-democracy movement and so have left the city. He does not expect the government to take any notice of their anger. Hong Kongers living abroad will preserve the city’s culture, he says. But “if you’re staying in Hong Kong then you have to endure.”

The Spectator reviews The Political Thought of Xi Jinping by Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung…

Xi and the CCP are solipsistic in the vulgar rather than true philosophical sense. They are supremely self-centred in their belief that the external world should exist or conduct itself only in so far as it reflects the CCP’s reality.

…Tsang and Cheung have done the hard work for us by ‘munching rhinoceros sausage’, as the sinologist Simon Leys described reading CCP documents. They have read the corpus of Xi’s books and speeches and ‘swallowed bucketfuls of sawdust’ (Leys again). 

From China File, an interview with journalist Chun Hang Wong on why Xi Jinping is not a ‘second Mao’…

[Mao’s rival Party leader] Liu Shaoqi, who was the arch Party-builder. Liu really believed in internal discipline, internal propaganda, internal political education. Liu wanted to ensure the Leninist hierarchy of the Party remained strong. Mao, by contrast, mobilized normal people to destroy the Party from the outside. This is something Xi Jinping would never do. The Party is his one true vehicle of power, the one instrument he has for implementing his vision. Xi is only powerful if the Communist Party is powerful. Xi’s internal purges, the internal Party inquisitions, emphasis on discipline, that’s from Liu Shaoqi. Xi Jinping doesn’t proclaim that theme loudly in public, but you can tell from the way he does things. Mao wouldn’t have done it that way.

And from a week ago – Gavekal Dragonomics’ Dan Wang’s annual letter. Parts II and III are about young Chinese ‘running’ overseas and related matters. Long, but worth it…

2023 was a year of disappearing ministers, disappearing generals, disappearing entrepreneurs, disappearing economic data, and disappearing business for the firms that have counted on blistering economic growth.

No wonder that so many Chinese are now talking about rùn. Chinese youths have in recent years appropriated this word in its English meaning to express a desire to flee. For a while, rùn was a way to avoid the work culture of the big cities or the family expectations that are especially hard for Chinese women. Over the three years of zero-Covid, after the state enforced protracted lockdowns, rùn evolved to mean emigrating from China altogether.

…The Chinese who rùn to the American border are still a tiny set of the people who leave. Most emigrés are departing through legal means. People who can find a way to go to Europe or an Anglophone country would do so, but most are going, as best as I can tell, to three Asian countries. Those who have ambition and entrepreneurial energy are going to Singapore. Those who have money and means are going to Japan. And those who have none of these things — the slackers, the free spirits, kids who want to chill — are hanging out in Thailand.

NatSec panic as ‘Liberate Hong Kong’ slogans are found on the sidewalk in Wong Tai Sin. Police conclude they were left over from 2019, and the paint covering them had worn off. Phew!

A theatrical group is barred from holding performances at the Hong Kong Institute of Contemporary Culture Lee Shau Kee School of Creativity after the Education Bureau accuses its founder of ‘inappropriate remarks linked to controversial and sensitive issues’. 

Poor octogenarian property tycoon SK ‘Henderson’ Lee. After over half a century of minting money playing the utterly non-innovative Hong Kong property scam, his attempt at encouraging imagination and originality comes to this. (There was a time when encouraging ‘creative’ arts and culture – like ‘critical thinking’ – was official policy. Lee’s donation was probably in line with this. Nowadays it would be a Xi Jinping Thought institute.)

The government did not include the HK Journalists Association in preliminary consultations on the Article 23 NatSec Law…

“[HKJA] believes anyone can be a reporter. It has counted 13-year-old children, or even those foul-mouthed individuals who made derogatory comments while filming our female officers, as professional reporters. We found it to be unrepresentative, therefore we didn’t reach out to it,” [Security Secretary Chris] Tang said in Cantonese after meeting with representatives from the media industry.

Bloomberg op-ed on Hong Kong’s forthcoming NatSec Law-Plus…

Watching Chief Executive John Lee deliver his press briefing on the public consultation of Article 23 was an exercise in surrealism. He consistently put forward the idea that the city needs this on top of the National Security Law, which was passed in 2020… At the time, Beijing said the measures were intended to bring calm back to Hong Kong’s streets, which had been rocked by pro-democracy protests. In reality, it was about control. The Hong Kong government is making similar arguments for its new law, saying it is intended to keep the financial hub safe and attract investors. It is yet another poor attempt at justifying even further restraints.

By any measure, Hong Kong is a shadow of its former self, both in terms of economic vibrancy and political activity. With this new plan, the Chinese transformation of the city is now almost complete, and Article 23 is just the latest piece of the jigsaw. The government says this will attract foreign interest and funds, but the strategy is at best disingenuous, and at worst, a charade that officials are hoping the international business community will buy.

The Young Post – which seems to employ the SCMP‘’s only investigative journalists – has a good piece on those ugly new street signs…

“The font aims to infuse a rich cultural ambience into the landscape and atmosphere of the community. It is well-proportioned, and its overall design is consistent with existing nameplates, effectively providing street information to the public,” said the Highways Department in an email response to Young Post last Thursday.

…According to the official website of Wen Yue Type – the mainland Chinese company that introduced the font – the typeface showcases rich calligraphic features, conveys a sense of rhythm, and creates a strong, humanistic atmosphere. Alibaba, which is the owner of the South China Morning Post, is an investor in this company.

…Another concern regarding the new font is its lack of adequate traditional Chinese characters for the city’s intricate street names.

Some weekend reading…

ArtNet looks at Hong Kong artists in exile in the UK…

[Artist Justin Wong] … spoke of feeling “liberated” in his art practice. Rather than focusing on the day-to-day socio-political issues of his hometown, life as a member of the Hong Kong diaspora has become the inspiration for his new projects. He has returned to woodblock printing, his main practice during his art school days. While experimenting with his newfound freedom, he has created the “Little Pink Man” series, which taps into the emotional struggle experienced by many Hong Kong migrants. “Indeed, we need time to reflect on this,” he noted. “This is an era of diaspora, so there should be art of the diaspora.”

The Journal of Democracy does a comparison of pro-dem movements in Thailand and Hong Kong…

Bangkok progressives have more reason for hope than their Hong Kong counterparts. This is a dramatic reversal from the mid-2010s, when Bangkok’s young progressives could only dream of being able to stand up and fight the way the Umbrella Movement had. In May 2023, Rangsiman, along with many other candidates from his Move Forward party, was elected to the Thai parliament in the second national election since the 2014 coup. Hong Kong activists, in contrast, have little obvious cause for optimism today, and must now find subtle ways to keep a spirit of resistance alive. Those who remain in the city are either fearfully awaiting the dreaded knock at the door or already languishing in prison. The remainder, like Nathan Law, live in exile. All are lamenting the loss of the freedoms they once had.

From Bloomberg – Greater Bay Area in action: Mainland-born professional Emma Leng moves from Hong Kong to Shenzhen – commuting in the opposite direction…

The 29-year-old is among a growing number of young white-collar professionals trading expensive, cramped quarters in Hong Kong for less pricey and roomier digs in Shenzhen … Additional perks include cheaper, round-the-clock food delivery options and cleaner air.

…driving the trend is the sharp increase in Hong Kong rents. That’s caused, in part, by an influx of mainland nationals, a result of new visa policies aimed at attracting talent. The government last year issued some 44,000 visas to mainland nationals under its Top Talent Pass scheme, which grants entry visas to graduates of the world’s top 100 universities.

Leng pays about 6,000 yuan ($836) a month for her 65-square-meter (700-square-foot) two-bedroom apartment in Shenzhen, $700 less than what she paid for the one-bedroom, 29-square-meter place she had in Hong Kong. Rents in Shenzhen run at about 108 yuan a square meter per month, less than a third of Hong Kong’s prices.

In the Diplomat – China’s inability to do ‘soft power’ 

[The old ‘friendly’ image] has fractured amid China’s increasing willingness to use its material power to pursue its own interests – to the detriment of both individual states and the international order.

…a more assertive “wolf warrior” foreign policy and diplomatic language, which has been materially and rhetorically committed to opposing liberal values and democratic institutions in favor of a more robust defense of Chinese values, China’s territorial claims, and the extension of Chinese material power. Concens deepened with the use of China’s trade and investment prominence to “punish” states, such as Australia and Lithuania, that pursue policies or hold viewpoints that China considers unacceptable. 

In some instances, this has generated a dangerous cycle of mutual recriminations as politicians in other states have focused on Beijing’s actions and rhetoric to sustain their own power based on insular nationalist tropes and appeals. As such, China has been more and more confronted by the United States, the European Union, United Kingdom, and other states across a range of areas. China has had border clashes with India and is the target of re-calibrations in the defense policies of Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. Still other states are openly attempting to lessen their dependence on Chinese trade and investment. 

…The Taiwanese election is an example of such a problem. Since the changes in Hong Kong, Taiwanese people have felt less and less attraction to China. This is hardly surprising, as Beijing insists on the same “One Country, Two Systems” formula used in Hong Kong as its overarching goal for Taiwan. At the same time, the DPP, as a governing party, has softened its independence rhetoric to embrace the “status quo.” 

Yet Chinese policymakers have been unable to adjust to these new changes, leaving them unable to harness the cultural affinities that exist between Taiwan and the mainland. Instead, Chinese leaders have doubled down on the rhetoric and policy frameworks that undermine any effective application of soft power or seek compromise. This has enflamed nationalism, both in China and across the region, and raises the potential that Chinese policymakers may be “trapped” by their own rhetoric into actions that may lead to violence. 

Nothing new. The real question would be ‘why can’t Leninists do ‘soft power’?’ Clue: soft power is mostly not government-controlled.

From New Scientist – evidence that modern humans reached what is now Shanxi, northern China at least several thousand years earlier than previously thought. Hints that the first homo sapiens got to the region via central Asia and Siberia, rather than from the south.

Some less rigorous work in a laborious Global Times piece intended to back claims that Taiwan is historically Chinese, starting ‘more than 30,000 years ago, during the same period as Peking Man’ and on through the Kingdom of Wu and Sui, Tang and Song dynasties before getting anywhere near modern times. And no mention of the Austronesian aboriginal tribes whose languages – related to Philippine and Malay tongues – are still spoken today. 

Nothing much to do with any of this – Wikipedia entry on one of those eccentric (as in ‘nuts’) Victorian/Edwardian-era women explorers. They don’t make them like this any more.

Recovering from a traumatic trip to Macau. The time in the erstwhile enclave was great; the journeys there and back, fairly horrendous. For example…

So just some quick late midweek links…

Some bureaucrat trying to be ‘creative’ decrees a new font for Hong Kong’s semi-iconic street signs. Such signage serves (obviously) an important purpose. But even if it were purely decorative, you wouldn’t use this nasty typeface. For example, to anyone with poor eyesight, the ‘e’ is indistinguishable from a ‘c’. And – as we all know – san serif is used on road and other signs for a reason: it is clearer. If the government backtracks on one thing this year, it could be this. 

The Guardian on mutual recognition of civil and commercial court judgements…

There is concern that the new ordinance will damage Hong Kong’s reputation as a global wealth management hub. Asset managers may no longer be able to advise wealthy clients with total confidence that their investments would be protected in Hong Kong. “Wealthy Chinese and foreigners alike have been concerned about their personal safety and the security of their assets in Hong Kong, and these judgments will convince many more to move to Asian or western destinations,” [financial research firm boss Andrew] Collier said.

From the CMP’s newsletter, a look at the HK Federation of Journalists, the United Front versio of the HK Journalists Association…

Li Dahong wears many crowns in Hong Kong. As well as chairing the HKFJ, he is the chairman and editor-in-chief of the Ta Kung Wen Wei Media Group, which combines the city’s two biggest state-run newspapers, the Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po. He is also a delegate to the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (中國人民政治協商會議全國委員會), the CCP-led political advisory body. Li is a prominent representative, in other words, of a model of state-led journalism that doesn’t question political power but serves as its megaphone.

…Tellingly, the HKFJ gala dinner on January 17, where John Lee gave media their marching orders, also served as the launch ceremony for a new body in the ACJA’s mold: the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Media Federation (粵港澳大灣區媒體聯盟). As Li Dahong addressed the crowd, he said in a nod to one of Xi Jinping’s key propaganda phrases that this new mega-group would endeavor to “tell Greater Bay stories well,” and that it would share the HKFJ’s foundational mission “to support the SAR government.”

The (paywalled) Economist looks at changes in Hong Kong’s population…

The demography of Hong Kong (with a population of 7.5m) is changing as the city tries to reverse a brain drain that has seen around 200,000 workers leave in recent years. In 2023 the government lifted strict pandemic controls and announced a slew of new visa schemes. But this “trawl for talent”, as the city’s chief executive, John Lee, calls it, has netted a rather homogenous catch. The city granted just 8,000 visas to Westerners between January and November 2023. Ten times as many went to people from mainland China.

… says a woman who trained as a lawyer in Britain, but moved to the city to work as a financial analyst … “Now all the business and corporate work is Beijing-focused. Singapore is really the hub for international work in Asia.”

…Some residents think that the authorities are actively trying to replace more liberal residents with mainlanders.

Article 23 is here. A four-week public consultation, versus three months last time. HKFP’s report. The Guardian’s. The whole paper. 

Freaky stuff. The phrase ‘soft resistance’ appears once (page 17)…

(d) Promoting messages endangering national security: The forces seeking to endanger the security of our country and the HKSAR have continued to make use of so-called artistic creations released through 16 media like publications, music, films, arts and culture, and online games, etc. as a disguise to disseminate messages that promote resistance against the Central Authorities and the HKSAR Government, advocating “Hong Kong independence” or subvert the State power using a “soft resistance” approach. Given the popular use of the Internet and social messaging applications, such messages can be covertly disseminated in a fast and extensive manner.

While ‘colour revolution’ appears 12 times, eg on pages 18-19…

(g)   Barbaric and gross interference from foreign governments and politicians in China’s internal affairs: Currently, there are unstable factors in the global situation coupled with increasingly complex geopolitics and rising unilateralism. Sovereign equality and non-interference in internal affairs are basic norms of international relations and fundamental principles of international law, which are also entrenched under the Charter of the United Nations7 . However, some external forces have continuously interfered with China’s affairs…

(h)   Grooming of agents by external forces: External forces have groomed agents through long-term infiltration in the HKSAR on all fronts. With significant influence and mobilisation capability, they have been, through their agents, instructing local organisations or individuals to engage in activities endangering national security, improperly influencing the implementation of policies by the HKSAR Government, or collecting intelligence or engaging in other activities endangering national security. Under guises such as so-called “fighting for rights” and “monitoring of human rights”, some external forces have carried out such projects in the HKSAR for a long time and subsidised local organisations to launch various kinds of so-called resistance activities, offering support to the Hong Kong version of “colour revolution”. 

If you have a Twitter account, read the long thread by Galileo Cheung. ‘State secrets officially include economic, social and technological developments’, etc. And a comparison with the 2003 version from Eliot Chen.

From Samuel Bickett…

…the worst case scenario for A23 is [that] it adopts China’s “state secrets” definition, which is the foundation of China’s repressive, secretive regime. Yet that’s exactly what this doc proposes–syncing the definition and scope of state secrets with China’s.

The proposed “state secrets” definition would apply to any documents or information related to “major policy decisions,” “economic and social development,” “technological development or scientific technology,” among others. It is explicitly designed to apply expansively.

What’s more, the state secrets provisions explicitly would require departments to proactively hide information that might be a state secret. We can say goodbye to the open-door policies gov’t bureaucrats have traditionally maintained under the Code on Access to Information.

Just as worrisome, the doc proposes revising the definition of “espionage” to make it apply to colluding with an external force (i.e., any foreigner or, say, a foreign NGO) to “publish a statement of fact that is false or misleading.” Espionage charges–for mere speech.

Separately, the doc also proposes a new offense of “external interference,” which would criminalize “collaborating” with foreigners  to “influence” the government. It’s an extraordinarily broad crime as written, which seemingly prohibits criticizing any government act.

This doc was released as a “consultation,” but other than some possible minor tweaks, it will not change…

HK Rule of Law Monitor fears procedural changes…

They include: extending the period of police detention – this can rule out the availability of bail completely, without any review.

Blocking arrestees from consulting with particular lawyers – given the dwindling no. of lawyers willing to take on the gov, arrestees could be left completely isolated in the jaws of the state.

“Eliminating certain procedures” to ensure “timely trials” – we have seen in #Appledaily and #NSL47 how this is code for pressuring the defence into giving up their rights, while allowing the prosecution every indulgence.

Eliminating remission for ppl convicted of national security offences – meaning they will end up serving a sentence which is one-third LONGER than the same sentence for a non-national security matter.

Act 1 (2020-07 to 2021-10): quash civil society with the #NSL. Act 2 (2021-10 to 2024-01): maintain status quo with the sedition law. Act 3 (2024-01 to -): kill off any semblance of normalcy.

From the FT…

“International business has run into trouble on the mainland, with [businesspeople] detained for suspected state secrets violations,” said John Burns, emeritus professor of politics and public administration at the University of Hong Kong. “Will the same illiberal interpretation of national security characterise Article 23’s implementation?”

“There is a risk that companies’ stakeholders abroad will see this as bringing Hong Kong more closely in line with the mainland at a time when we feel it is important to stress the differences rather than the perceived similarities,” said a foreign chamber of commerce representative in Hong Kong who asked to remain anonymous.

The government’s view comes courtesy of Paul Lam and the Four Necessaries. Ronnie also supports it, though once he didn’t.  Legco is already on board (though no draft bill is yet available).

The government says it welcomes comments (fax 2868 5074). Bear in mind Sam Bickett’s point…

Perversely, even criticizing [the proposed Article 23 law] as part of the “consultation” may violate the existing NSL or sedition law.