Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Will probably Tweet a few things. Some reading from the last few days…

One month after the Article 23 NatSec Law came into effect, there have been no arrests. The SCMP gets an explanation…

Ronny Tong Ka-wah, a top government adviser, said: “No matter how hard you explain, critics from the West always accuse Hong Kong of lacking a democratic system and of using the law to suppress dissent.”

…he said the government knew the law could not be used frequently or it would just “fulfil Western prophecies”.

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The only thing the government can do is to be judicious in handling relevant cases. Prosecute only if absolutely necessary,” he said.

“The next one to two years are key. If the government needs to use this law, it means unstable elements still persist in society.”

…the Hong Kong government has shifted its strategy towards a “softer, reactive” approach, according to a senior official who spoke to the Post on condition of anonymity.

“The goal is to redirect the narrative to focus more on the economy, instead of issuing further warnings [related to the law],” he said.

It sort of sounds like someone is listening to complaints from some pro-government circles about non-stop paranoid ranting (‘you might be arrested for having an old newspaper!’). This is about the narrative, at least. As the story points out, the Article 23 Law will impact existing/future NatSec prisoners, by reducing their chances of early release for good conduct.

Would redirecting the narrative mean fewer/milder angry press releases? A selection of letters from the Hong Kong government to the WSJ. (A framed copy to hang in the Singapore office might be a suitable farewell gift.) 

Cartoonist Zunzi wins the Kofi Annan Courage in Cartooning Award…

Zunzi was dismissed by his newspaper in 2023, three years after China adopted national security laws that have reshaped Hong Kong’s arts, culture and media. Officials complained his images were “distorting and unethical”.

Zunzi, born in Hong Kong in 1955, began his career as a political caricaturist with Ming Pao in 1983.

The paper sacked him last year after months of criticism from officials and attacks on freedom of expression, the [Freedom Cartoonists Foundation] said.

The authorities complained his drawings displayed “sanctimonious humour that damages Hong Kong’s image”.

His books and albums are banned from public libraries.

(Fantasizing about being arrested for ‘sanctimonious humour’. I would die happy.)

In the Hongkonger – Steve Vines’ thoughts on the slapping-down of Paul Tse as the inevitable fate of a disposable loyalist, including comments on Carrie Lam …

This explains why … Beijing … unceremoniously dumped Carrie Lam as Hong Kong chief executive after her usefulness had expired. Lam was installed in office because she was malleable and seemed able to do the job. But she presided over the biggest street protests in Chinese history and allowed an unforgivable act of civil resistance to linger for months.

The fact that she was only carrying out orders made things worse, because if the Communist Party were to have admitted there was something wrong with the orders, it would have undermined the credibility of the regime.

An important point. Many people seem convinced that Lam decided to introduce the extradition bill that led to the 2019 protests, so it was all her fault. As a measure concerning Mainland and Taiwan relations, it was purely under Beijing’s authority.

The SCMP looks at China’s ability to escape the ‘middle-income trap’, and (sort of answering the question) whether it matters… 

China’s GDP was about 65 per cent of the US last year, but per-capita GDP in the latter country was still 6.48 times higher.

Rural residents – who account for a third of the Chinese population – had a disposable income of over 21,000 yuan (US$2,897) in 2023, around 42 per cent of what their urban counterparts enjoyed.

In the longer term, China faces an even greater challenge to achieving its goal of becoming a “moderately developed country” by 2035, said Xia Chun, chief economist at Forthright Holdings Co. In terms of per-capita GDP, it is currently ranked 71st in the world, immediately following Costa Rica.

…If China uses the current per-capita GDP of Spain and Saudi Arabia as the standard for being “moderately developed” – US$30,000 in 2022 – it will need a compound annual growth rate of 6.8 per cent in the years leading up to 2035 to hit the mark, a milestone Xia said would be “very difficult” to reach.

Definitions of ‘middle-income’ vary. But the reality is that very few countries ever make the transition to the Spain-plus wealthy tier. Apart from oil sheikdoms and city-states, the only countries to manage it since World War II include Portugal, Spain, Greece, South Korea, Taiwan and – barely – Chile. Some Eastern European countries like Estonia and Slovenia are getting there. 

The determinant is productivity, which in turn means a high level of education among most of the population. Then institutions and governance. So ‘very difficult’ sounds about right.

The FT asks why Xi Jinping is ‘afraid to unleash China’s consumers’. Mainly because yet more supply-side measures guarantee higher short-term GDP growth. But…

Ideology and geopolitics also play roles. For Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, the greater the control his country exerts over global supply chains, the more secure he feels, particularly as tensions rise with the US, analysts argue. This leads to an emphasis on investment, particularly in technology, rather than consumption.

…“China is responsible for one-third of global production but one-tenth of global demand, so there’s a clear mismatch,” US secretary of state Antony Blinken said in Beijing last week.

Michael Pettis (quoted in the article) adds…

The Chinese economy has locked itself into a system in which every economic problem is met by supply-side policies that expand investment or, more precisely, that force households to increase their indirect transfers to investment and manufacturing.

…the article cites Renda’s Liu Zhiqin as saying: “The conflicts in Europe and currently in the Middle East have repeatedly proven the importance of maintaining a robust manufacturing capacity and ample inventory.”

He may be right, but Beijing seems surprised that the US, the EU, India, Japan and the rest of the world might think the same way, and so refuse to lose manufacturing capacity to satisfy China’s need to resolve its weak domestic demand by further expanding manufacturing.

That’s the problem facing China: everyone can’t expand or maintain its share of global manufacturing at the same time, but expanding its share of global manufacturing is the least bad investment option for China if it wants to maintain high GDP growth rates.

Not helping – Chinese housewives are forming clubs to encourage saving…

In February this year, Ms Zhuo joined several online saving groups, with most members being women aged between 20 and 40. Every day, they log their budget and expenses. They also help to stop each other from making impulse purchases.

Ms Zhuo says that one member was tempted to buy a luxury bag that cost 5,000 yuan ($690; £560) but after talking to other women in the group settled for a much cheaper, second-hand bag.

She is surprised so many others are doing the same, and says she feels a sense of camaraderie with her saving partners. Just a month after teaming up with a partner, she says her spending was down by 40%. She now aims to save 100,000 yuan this year.

From Safeguard Defenders – China pursues a dissident in exile in Italy…

In March-April of this year, threats against his parents become more prominent again, with one account threatening his parents will be detained if he does not return to China voluntarily and warning of repercussions if he were to share the messages received. Simultaneously, deeply insulting memes and comments about his parents are posted across social media accounts and in response to Li’s posts. 

From Politico – Michael Kovrig on being held hostage in China (scroll down)…

They are obsessed with the United States. They are paranoid about the United States. And if it were possible to have multiple interpretations of why the U.S. did something in particular, you can pretty much assume that they will take the most negative possible interpretation. They view the U.S. government as unrelentingly hostile towards the party state.

The Leninist obsession with control, the need to control everything is hardwired into the system. XI JINPING is very powerful and very important. But we need to think of him as also being strapped into a giant, bureaucratic authoritarian machine. And he’s trying to get that machine to do what he wants. But he himself is a prisoner of that system as well. None of those people can get out of that system. Xi Jinping can’t safely retire. He can’t just go and say, “You know what? I’m done. I’m going to go live in Tahiti.” None of them can get out of that machine. And so they are all just trying to survive inside that machine.

China Law and Policy interview with author Ian Johnson on China’s ‘underground historians – idealistic, charming and courageous characters who are trying to document China’s true history’.

And a preview of the state banquet for the inauguration of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new President on May 20. Sadly, few details of the menu. I can see what looks like braised fish, shrimp and a salad, plus perhaps one mixed seafood, one pork and one beef dish, and a very murky soup, possibly with a mushroom in it. And fruit and an ice pop for dessert. Bubble tea?

Hong Kong should manage expectations of sub-par fireworks displays. This follows a ‘scaled down’ damp-squib event amid bad weather on May 1, which disappointed Mainland tourists, who…

…mockingly called the display a “smoke show” after it fogged up the skyline.

It looks likely that the ‘green bag’ waste-charging scheme will be postponed yet again. The logic is that, while postponement will damage the government’s standing, going ahead with the originally April, then August plan would hurt its reputation even more…

…two sources said the government could postpone the plan for months, if not years, in the name of the low participation rate in the trial, more time for preparing for the relevant facilities and public education.

Maybe we could all be cheered up by a Denise Ho concert. But that’s not going to happen either. The star isn’t allowed out of Hong Kong, and local venues won’t accept bookings – though tickets would sell out in minutes – because the janitor’s cat has a dentist’s appointment…

Police are currently in possession of the singer’s passport as she was arrested on charges of sedition in connection with the 2021 Stand News trial. She was also arrested on charges of suspected “collusion with foreign powers” in 2022…

And the Wall Street Journal is moving much of its Hong Kong operations to Singapore. The editor-in-chief wrote to staff…

We are shifting our center of gravity in the region from Hong Kong to Singapore, as many of the companies we cover have done. Consequently, some of our colleagues, mostly in Hong Kong, will be leaving us. It is difficult to say goodbye, and I want to thank them for the contributions they have made to the Journal.

A new book: Pandemic Minds – COVID-19 and Mental Health in Hong Kong by Kate Whitehead…

This eye-opening book tells the stories of ordinary Hongkongers who faced extraordinary challenges during the pandemic. Through a blend of first-person accounts, psychological insights, and hard data, it offers a compelling and accessible exploration of the toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken on mental health in Hong Kong.

Not just Hongkongers, but Mainland tourists coming here are going to Shenzhen for the evening…

…a group of tourists planned to visit Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok to take photos, and then go to Shenzhen to stay overnight as Hong Kong hotels are costly.

“We will go back to Shenzhen at night, but we may come again on Friday,” one of them said. “The price of a hotel room in Shenzhen is just a third of that in Hong Kong. That’s a huge difference.”

Hong Kong Tourism Instructors Association chairman Lam Chi-tin said … “The number of inbound tour groups has dropped from over 300 per day before to about 100 to 200 now,” Lam said, adding the period of stay has also decreased to two nights, from three to four nights in the past.

“More tour groups even choose not to stay overnight, which has affected the income of tour guides, resulting in difficulties in attracting new blood to the industry.”

A Reuters story quotes a number of small business owners lamenting poor business in post-Covid/NatSec Hong Kong…

Businesses describe shopping malls as “dead”, with low foot traffic and shops covered with “for lease” or “coming up soon” signs.

Edmund Wong, an accountancy sector lawmaker, told the city’s legislature last Friday that more than 20,000 companies had deregistered in the first quarter of 2024, up more than 70% from the same period last year.

Simon Wong, president of the Hong Kong Federation of Restaurants and Related Trades, told public broadcaster RTHK that he estimated around 200-300 restaurants had closed over the past month, a trend he expects to continue.

…”…prices in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and even Changsha have hardly changed much  [said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura]. But in Hong Kong … We have found that the price difference has widened, which has encouraged Hong Kong people to go north for consumption.”

After Hong Kong reopened its border post-pandemic with China last year, the Tourism Board recorded a 38.9% drop in mainland visitors in 2023, compared with 2019 before the pandemic.

Spending by same-day mainland tourists plunged 36.4% in 2023, dropping from an average of HK$2,200 per person in 2019 to HK$1,400 after the border reopened last year.

The government tries hard to keep rents as high as possible, yet also crams the place full of tourists who can’t afford to come here.

More Hong Kong cultural facilities are closing: the President Theatre in Causeway Bay, and concert and other spaces at the KITEC building in Kowloon Bay. And developers might scrap a planned non-profit performing arts space at a new project in Causeway Bay…

…last month, [Hysan and Chinachem] announced that they could be forced to drop the cultural space in favour of a park because the Lands Department will charge a commercial land premium for an arts and cultural venue. 

The cinema will presumably become stores selling luxury garbage no-one wants, while KITEC will be replaced by office blocks, as if we don’t have enough empty office space already. And developers apparently panting with desperation to promote culture should always be treated with suspicion.

But the three stories are a reminder of the never-ending absurdity of making space as expensive as possible. The Caroline Road case specifically reminds us that it is hard to have ‘nice things’ in Hong Kong urban areas because the government requires developers to pay land-development rights – ‘premiums’ – for attractive features or facilities. 

One small but illustrative example is a walkway from a large office block over a multi-lane highway to a shopping mall in Admiralty, which in turn links to more walkways to other parts of the district. Rather than just walking directly into the mall, users must go down outdoor stairs, into the mall’s street-level entrance, then back up an escalator to continue elsewhere. The landlord (I heard) refused to build an entrance off the walkway because the government demanded a premium. 

The premium serves as an up-front, one-off tax on the increased profits the landlord could earn. In the Admiralty case, there are no profits, nor tax revenue – just inconvenience for pedestrians. The obvious answer would be to simply collect recurrent taxes on higher profits as the landlord makes them. But bureaucrats are obsessed with collecting big premiums (which, perversely, are earmarked for infrastructure projects, however unnecessary.)

Because of this, bureaucrats see concessions on premiums as a subsidy, which in effect they are; not surprisingly, developers have a long tradition of abusing such giveaways. For example, the government offers a lower premium, but in return the developer must provide some public space – and then when the new building is opened, that space is mysteriously hard to find and/or leased out to a business. Bureaucrats and developers are trapped in a cycle of urban-planning assholery, and Hongkongers end up with a nasty living environment. (We’ll leave the Transport Bureau to one side here.)

When they’re not issuing blood-curdling warnings about national-security threats in our midst, senior local and Beijing officials insist Hong Kong must ‘focus on the economy’ and embrace a ‘new mindset’. Every time, I wait to hear how they will abandon this stupid land policy. Because if you really want to reinvigorate the economy, you need to break away from the system that lets landlords capture so much of the wealth – and that’s where you’d start. Until then, talk of focus and mindsets is empty.

HKFP op-ed on the so-called smears wantonly slandering despicable shameless and malicious hypocrisy that’s doomed to fail in government press releases responding to overseas criticism of NatSec laws…

The new language began creeping into Hong Kong official communications in July 2019…

The change in the government’s official language requires an explanation. I speculate that the central authorities now require it of official Hong Kong communication on some topics in some situations.

Either that or Ronald the Deputy Sub-Assistant Government Information Services Officer scratched his head one day and thought ‘hmm – let’s try this’. 

Either way, the startlingly excessive language does not exactly convey cool confidence. The article quotes Regina Ip as having misgivings about the enraged warrior-like wording, which is especially frequent in English-language press statements. (Reg studied Elizabethan literature for her Master’s degree, so is better qualified than most in this field.) She speculates that foreign criticism might die down after the Jimmy Lai trial comes to end. This sounds almost like an implicit admission of unease about that prosecution. In the original Ming Pao interview (here), she also says… 

“…It is important for you [the media] to report whether we (legislative council members) spoke or raised our hands,” stressing that the council should not be lazy because there is no opposition.

Another – explicit – admission of the current state of things.

Sean Tierny in the Hongkonger looks back at the 1990 Mainland-cop-in-Hong-Kong comedy film Her Fatal Ways, starring Do Do Cheng. It was a different time…

…members of a Chinese delegation to Hong Kong complained that the film, “a comedy mocking characters of the PRC public security bureau”, was “allowed to be shown”.

The Audit Commission finds some easy pickings: public bodies failing to include NatSec provisions in their paperwork…

The watchdog said the Hong Kong Academy for Gifted Education (HKAGE), an NGO fully funded by the government, had not established any measures to safeguard national security.

Such measures were also missing from…

…Hongkong’s Post contracts with stamp designers, the Department of Health’s contracts with an institution to provide dental services for the elderly, and the Transport Department’s contracts for buses for rehabilitation services.

Director of Audit Nelson Lam said in an interview with Ming Pao in February that some government departments and public organisations “completely disregarded” the national security law after it was enacted.

Good to see we are alert to national security threats lurking among providers of dental services to the elderly.

RFA on patriotism in Hong Kong schools…

…Teachers at [a NT] school have been warned “not to directly or indirectly encourage or acquiesce in students’ participation in any off-campus political activities,” according to the report, a copy of which is available on the school’s website.

…The Kowloon Technical College has also been checking its library, and has banned seven books, according to its report for last academic year.

“On March 15-16, 2023, the vice principal, director of reading promotion and the library director inspected the library collection and found a total of seven books containing political propaganda,” the report said.

The Christian Alliance Cheng Wing Gee College requires its teachers to upload any teaching materials to the school’s intranet for approval before using them in class, while teachers are focusing on “boosting national and ethnic pride” as a natural part of the day-to-day curriculum, according to its report.

Meanwhile, students at the Tai Po Baptist Public School have been attending Chinese national flag-raising ceremonies on designated days to establish “correct values ​​and patriotic feelings.”

…Students who are deemed to have violated national security laws, which include clauses forbidding public criticism of the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, or any non-critical mention of the pro-democracy movement, will be counseled, punished or have their parents called in, depending on the seriousness of the alleged offense, the reports said.

And the government responds at great length to more foreign criticism of the Article 23 law…

…strongly opposed the so-called resolution adopted by the European Parliament against Hong Kong, and strongly condemned the Parliament for making baseless allegations about Hong Kong and smearing the Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) and the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance (the Ordinance)…

…”…the Parliament has demonstrated typical political hegemony and hypocrisy with double standards.”

…”Following the successful enactment of the Ordinance, the shortcomings in the legal system and enforcement mechanisms for the HKSAR to safeguard national security are addressed. We must once again emphasise that the Ordinance is a piece of legislation to defend against external forces that endanger our national security, acting like a sturdier door and a more effective door lock to defend our home. The HKSAR Government strongly urges the European Parliament to stop smearing and interfering in Hong Kong affairs which are internal affairs of China and ensure that their remarks concerning the NSL and the Ordinance are fair and just, and stop making scaremongering remarks”… 

Over two years after being arrested, Chow Hang-tung, Albert Ho, and Lee Cheuk-yan hear that their trial for ‘inciting subversion of state power’ (June 4 vigil) will not take place until next year. Chow and Lee have been in jail the whole time.

A little weekend reading…

Asia Review of Books on a new work about the original Chinese TV chef.

And the Diplomat looks at moves to replace Mongolia’s Cyrillic alphabet – introduced by the USSR – with its pre-1940s Bichig, derived from a Uighur alphabet that had common ancestry with Arabic and Hebrew scripts. The writer sees this as strengthening cultural ties with China (though Beijing has been replacing Mongolian and Uighur with Chinese in its own ethnic-minority schools)…

On the whole, the history of Mongolian script reform and official foreign language education is not about a natural process of cultural evolution, but an artificial political project. Political decisions ultimately determine the type of alphabet to be used. In the long run, then, Ulaanbaatar’s efforts to strengthen the restoration of bichig while promoting English education may directly or indirectly affect Moscow’s and Beijing’s policies toward Mongolia.

The first thing I see this morning on Twitter – in other words, the first thing I see this morning – is a newspaper cover. A vivid reminder of the glorious horror that is a free press, and specifically of Apple Daily. The Daily Star (Scotland edition), with the headlines: ‘Greasy fry-ups will turn us into zombies’, ‘Britain’s hardest seagull is a wuss’, and ‘All you’ll ever need to know about marshmallows’ – plus an ad for discount Coca Cola.

I recently went to the Museum of Coastal Defence for a last look before it gets ‘rectified’ later this year, after which it will be renamed the Hong Kong Museum of the War of Resistance and Coastal Defence. A before-and-after comparison will be interesting. It’s not about what new exhibits they add (it already has displays on pre-colonial forces, the East River Column and the PLA), so much as what, if anything, they remove. A lot of the equipment, uniforms and posters are very much British-era, and not exactly in keeping with today’s patriotic emphasis. 

The munitions alone are worth a look – from 10-inch naval gun shells, to mortar bombs, to hand grenades, to anti-aircraft rounds, to .303 bullets – plus the 1890s ‘Brennan’ guided torpedo.

The trial begins of a group accused of planning a terrorist bombing and shooting attack in 2019. Interesting because: while authorities have announced the discovery of bomb-making and similar activities, the cases rarely seem to come to court; and this prosecution is outside the NatSec sphere – so there will be a jury.

Not sure if this is all sub judice, but Nury Vittaci sees fit to write a lengthy Twitter post asserting that the alleged terrorists were paid by the CIA, trained in Taiwan (crossbows!) and plotting ‘regime change’. Lots of tedious tanky stuff – but if the PRC had a shred of evidence that the US was attempting to engineer a violent overthrow of the Hong Kong/Chinese authorities, it would have broken off diplomatic relations with Washington.  

Another Twitter thread by ex-District Council member Michael Mo – now in the UK – on the academic credentials of pro-Beijing industrialist ‘Dr’ Aaron Shum (bio here), who reportedly helped introduce the Dubai prince’s family office plans to Hong Kong officials. Some extracts…

On Wiki, Shum has been listed as a PhD at Southern Pacific University … in St. Kitts & Nevis and Belize. 

…SPU has been named an unaccredited institution of higher education, aka Diploma Mills! 

…SPU’s President Geoffrey Taylor is allegedly linked up with arms sales, drug deals and tax fraud [citation].

There’s quite a lot more (insurance companies, Greater Bay Area, Malaysia, etc).

(See also Elizabeth Quat.)

Want more stuff from Twitter? A post reporting on a talk at HKU – Accounting for the Rise of Nativism (Localism) in Hong Kong and Its Impact on Pro-democracy Sentiment 1997-2022: A Quantitative Analysis.

Some mid-week reading…

Cardinal Zen/Chan, Margaret Ng, Denise Ho et al are to challenge their conviction for not registering the 612 Fund (hearing in January next year).

An outlet called Providence fears for the independence of the Catholic church in Hong Kong…

The Hong Kong Diocese is collaborating with PRC authorities to achieve the Sinicization of religion, incorporating socialist values into the church’s teachings and diminishing the role of the Pope. Additionally, the PRC is moving to take over the administration of church institutions and now expects sermons to promote adherence to socialist values and acceptance of Beijing’s laws. Social actions, such as support for human rights and social justice causes, will no longer be permitted. Furthermore, the curriculum of religious schools is now integrated with national identity-based curricula. 

The BBC on Hong Kong soccer and anthems…

“We were certainly put under pressure by the Hong Kong SAR [Special Administrative Region] Government to do everything we could to stop [booing of the PRC anthem],” [former HKFA boss Mark Sutcliffe] says.

“We ran publicity campaigns. We introduced more stringent security at matches, including searches and confiscation of banners. We couldn’t stop it altogether and the upshot was that we were fined by Fifa several times.”

In 2020 Hong Kong’s legislature also took measures, passing a bill that criminalised disrespect to the anthem – with a maximum prison sentence of three years.

Even so, in the first home game open to the public since the introduction of the new law in September 2022, the national anthem was again booed by sections of the crowd before kick-off against Myanmar.

Three months later, the 83 sporting associations in Hong Kong were told that they had to add “China” to their names or risk losing funding. About three-quarters had not previously done so.

Football fans flocked to buy the last batch of shirts that still had the former Hong Kong logo, before the word “China” was added to the dragon crest.

From AP a few weeks ago – a sensible look at the politics involved in researching Covid origins (mercifully light on the ‘lab leak’ obsession)…

Crucial initial efforts were hampered by bureaucrats in Wuhan trying to avoid blame who misled the central government; the central government, which muzzled Chinese scientists and subjected visiting WHO officials to stage-managed tours; and the U.N. health agency itself, which may have compromised early opportunities to gather critical information in hopes that by placating China, scientists could gain more access, according to internal materials obtained by AP.

The BBC on China’s sinking cities…

Nearly half of China’s major cities are sinking because of water extraction and the increasing weight of their rapid expansion, researchers say.

“In China there are lots of people living in areas that have been fairly recently sedimented, geologically speaking. So when you take out groundwater or you drain the soils, they tend to subside.”

East is Read summarizes two recent pieces by opposing Chinese commentators on the country’s future relations with the US – one by a level-headed academic, the other by a nationalistic blogger.

Sixth Tone asks a Chinese academic whether Marco Polo really visited so many parts of the Mongol Empire.

The Guardian on the Taiwan government’s plans to remove more statues of Chiang Kai-shek.

Remember Hong Kong John Lee’s recent warning…

“Foreign intelligence officers and their proxies would use different industries as disguise … Spies may marry and raise a family just like an ordinary citizen, and only commit acts of terrorism or theft of state secrets after years [of hiding].” 

National Security Education Day wasn’t confined to Hong Kong…

In a slick video marking the National Security Education Day, China’s top spy agency has a stern message for Chinese people: foreign spies are everywhere.

As ominous music plays, a broad-faced, beady-eyed man disguises himself as a street fashion photographer, a lab technician, a businessman and a food delivery driver – he even sets up an online honey trap – to glean sensitive state secrets in various places and industries.

“In the sea of people, you may have never noticed him. His identity is changeable and his whereabouts are hard to find,” a narrator says. “They are everywhere, cunning… and sneaky, and they may be right here in our lives.”

Eventually, Chinese police catch the spy in a dramatic ambush after state security authorities receive multiple tip-offs from the public.

“They can disguise as anyone. But among the crowds you and I together are protecting national security,” the narrator concludes. “We 1.4 billion people are 1.4 billion lines of defense.”

Hong Kong’s Justice Secretary denies that the authorities have refrained from arresting people in the first month of the local Article 23 NatSec Law to avoid spreading alarm. He says the new legislation will be used only in ‘really compelling circumstances’.

The FT reports that German pharmaceuticals inspectors are refusing to go to China for fear of being arrested for espionage, adding to shortages of drugs supplies.

And behold the teachers’ resource kit for primary-level English with NatSec. The main chapter headings are: Cherishing Food, Chinese Dance and Culture, Saving Endangered Animals, and China’s Space Exploration. 

The Cherishing Food subject covers ‘food security’ – plus Professor Yuan Longping and the Qinling Mountains and Huai He. In the part on dance and culture, a supposed magazine article asks ‘Why do people eat mooncakes?’

Not sure whether primary-level kids need to know these things – or whether their parents will think it can help kids succeed in their missions to become doctors or lawyers. But at least I learnt something. (Renowned hybrid-rice agronomist whose curiosity, devotion, perseverance, diligence and selflessness left an unforgettable spiritual treasure to us all, and the line that separates rice- and wheat-growing regions of China. None the wiser on mooncakes.)

All this serves as an important reminder: the third season of Spy X Family should be released in October, and meanwhile there’s the movie to look forward to.

Lawmaker Paul Tse adds a disclaimer to his Facebook page, saying criticism of the government is intended to be constructive, not to ‘incite hatred’ or anything. He is presumably pre-empting the new breed of all-patriot types out there who will denounce anyone and everyone to prove their loyalty. Will it convince those zealots? More to the point, would it persuade NatSec police dedicated to exposing new threats? 

Should we all do this now? Maybe get it printed on T-shirts. (Not sure I like the new look up there. Should get around to doing a new one.)

A Japanese academic in the Diplomat asks what comes next after the Article 23 law…

Viewed objectively, one struggles to discern any national security loopholes in Hong Kong that needed to be closed with quite that degree of urgency. After all, in 2020, the Chinese government had enacted powerful legislation called the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (National Security Law), after which it began to round up anti-government activists. The pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily was shut down. The electoral system was altered, and pro-democracy parties were all but expelled from Hong Kong politics. Anti-government political activities, social movements, and even public discourse have already been extinguished. Indeed, some observers argue that this latest law was not required at all, given the existence of the National Security Law.

…Under British rule, Hong Kong experienced six months of violent riots in 1967, which led to the arrest of many young people. However, the government subsequently regretted for the lack of governance that sparked the anti-government movement, granted amnesty to those arrested, and established a golden age during which it earned the support of the people by eradicating corruption and expanding welfare in 1970s.

In contrast, the Safeguarding National Security Bill was applied for the first time on March 25, 2024, just two days after it became law, stipulating that a national security prisoner may not be granted early release, effectively extending the sentences of young people already in prison for such crimes.

For Hong Kong to be able to focus fully on economic development, it will need to improve its relations with the West and restore local trust in government. This latest law looks to be a move in the opposite direction.

Saudis are visiting Hong Kong to raise interest in a planned city that would stretch 105 miles across the desert, ultimately having a population of nine million. It would be that long because it’s only a few hundred yards wide. (Amazed Donald Tsang or Carrie Lam didn’t think of a reclamation this size and shape.) Basically, a narrow strip of skyscrapers running like a wall through wilderness, rejecting the obvious advantages of cities built in two horizontal dimensions, like convenient connections between different clusters of economic and cultural activities.

So idiotic, it obviously won’t happen. (Clue: a US$1.5 trillion price tag.)  This is to urban planning what blockchain is to bank transfers. Maybe they heard about the welcome extended to Dubai princes talking of family offices and decided it’s worth a try.