Big Lychee, Various Sectors

Interesting article by US academic Ryan Fedasiuk on China’s modern-day success and hubris…

The questions I fielded from diplomats, scholars, journalists, and cab drivers — whether there are any China experts left in the U.S. government; whether tariffs are designed to deliberately collapse China’s economy; or whether the United States may be deliberately goading China into launching a disastrous war over Taiwan — revealed how distorted the picture of the United States has become. The Party’s success in sealing out Western influence has also sealed in ignorance about the American policy process and political economy.

…After decades spent demanding respect abroad, the irony is that China has engineered an environment so controlled and self-referential that it no longer understands the world it seeks to lead — or the superpower it aims to surpass.

A (probably paywalled) NYT column raises the question of who takes over after Xi Jinping goes…

“Xi almost surely realizes the importance of succession, but he also realizes that it’s incredibly difficult to signal a successor without undermining his own power” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Policy Center for China Analysis. “The immediate political and economic crises that he faces could end up continually outweighing the priority of getting around to executing a succession plan.”

Speculation about Mr. Xi’s future is highly sensitive and censored in China, and only a handful of officials may be privy to his thinking about the issue. 

…Even officials poised to be elevated to central leadership at the next Communist Party congress, in 2027, are probably too advanced in age to succeed Mr. Xi, said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California San Diego who studies elite politics in China.

With Mr. Xi likely to serve another term or even longer, his successor could prove to be an official born in the 1970s, likely now working in a provincial administration or an agency of the central government. The party has been promoting some younger officials who fit that profile, said Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan who studies the Communist Party.  

But…“Xi is highly distrustful of others, especially those officials who have only an indirect relationship with him,” Professor Wang said. “As he grows older and has fewer connections to the generation of his possible successors, this factor will become more important.”

In the years ahead, the upper ranks of the party may grow more fluid as Mr. Xi tests and discards potential recruits for leadership, experts said. Behind the scenes, officials within his circle may jockey more intensely for influence and political survival.

“This will make the succession process more fragmented, because he can’t possibly just have one designated successor,” Professor Shih said. “It has to be a collective to choose from, and that probably also means they will have low-grade power struggles with each other.”

History Workshop (a ‘digital magazine of radical history’) on the UK’s stash of old Hong Kong government files, most of which are still not open to the public…

Control over history has been exercised to an even greater degree in the Hong Kong case than [other colonies]. As in other territories, colonial officials maintained the administration based partly on the extensive information they held and, towards the end of the administration, chose which documents to remove to the UK. But unlike other territories, the British Government continues to deny access to the Hong Kong files. Even after the 1997 handover and recent pressures on Hong Kong’s history, the records that were relocated to the relative safety of the UK remain closed. By controlling access, the British Government maintains a handle on the narrative of its colonial administration and on the broader history of Hong Kong. In withholding these files, the British Government denies Hong Kong people access to their own cultural, social, economic, political and personal past, controlling history as it controlled the colony.

The UK government releases papers after 20 years, but some are kept under wraps for longer for national security or other reasons. Sensitive materials (in Hong Kong’s case, perhaps to do with the handover) don’t account for more than a tiny percentage of the content and are redacted. One possible reason the Hong Kong files are still not released is simply that there are huge amounts of them, and they are mostly on microfiche, which is a pain to digitize – not because of a desire to ‘control history’. 

The 16th and 17th members to pull out of the all-patriots Legislative Council are Michael Tien and Tony Tse. One prominent name remaining on the departure-bingo card is of course the indefatigable Regina Ip. (Or should that be ‘once indefatigable’?)

The body has cancelled its usual end-of-term valedictory motion…

Starry Lee, chair of the House Committee, announced the decision on Tuesday, a day before the Valedictory Motion was scheduled to be delivered, saying that the lawmakers’ final remarks might influence the elections in December. The nomination period will begin on Friday.

“It was a difficult choice,” Lee said. But she added that withdrawing the motion would allow lawmakers to “focus on legislative work and ensure the election’s fairness.”

The Valedictory Motion, a post-Handover LegCo tradition, allows each legislator to deliver a speech within the chamber to say goodbye and reflect on their time in office.

Earlier, on Monday evening, Ming Pao reported that LegCo was considering scrapping the farewell motion to avoid “embarrassing” scenes.

Visions of Reg being dragged out of the chamber like Hu Jintao. And quite right – we can’t have anything that might harm the election’s fairness.

HKFP reports…

The managing body of the West Kowloon Cultural District cancelled an LGBTQ-themed play on Saturday, hours before tickets went on sale, after complaints alleging the drama “defames Hong Kong.”

The production team of the play We Are Gay, written by award-winning playwright Candace Chong, said in a statement on Saturday that the West Kowloon Cultural District Authority (WKCDA) notified them of the cancellation at around 9am that day, roughly two hours before tickets were to go on sale.

…In an emailed reply to HKFP, the WKCDA said on Saturday that it had received “a large number of complaints,” which alleged the play “promotes confrontation and defames Hong Kong.”

“To be prudent, the Authority considers it inappropriate to stage the programme at [the West Kowloon Cultural District]’s venues,” it added.

Separately, the Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau told HKFP on Saturday that it had been consulted by the WKCDA and that it supported and consented to the venue’s decision.

…State-backed newspaper Wen Wei Po published a commentary article on Saturday, alleging that Chong “stirred political confrontation under the guise of a cultural worker and incited social division.”

The article also criticised the WKCDA for allowing Chong’s play to be staged in the Xiqu Centre.

We Are Gay was first performed as part of the Hong Kong Arts Festival in 2022.

What’s going on here? You might think that Wen Wai Po, acting as a watchdog against ‘soft resistance’, drew attention to the drama because it dislikes the playwright, and someone took this as a cue to complain, resulting in the WKCDA and its government Bureau overseers hurriedly disowning the planned performances. But who knows?

The Wen Wei Po commentary is quite something. It mentions that Candace Chong worked with a group connected to the Hong Kong Alliance with Lee Cheuk-yan and Chow Hang-tung, reposted a statement by the authors of the lambs and wolves cartoon book, ‘fled’ Hong Kong, having the backing of a ‘red-bearded, green-eyed foreigner’, writing plays aimed at Hongkongers in the UK, and being among the ranks of ‘shameless people who call themselves intellectuals but are actually accomplices of evil’. 

Some links from last week…

Michael Korvig on Beijing’s new warm and cuddly approach to convince Canadians to have a ‘correct perception’ of China…

[Ambassador Wang Di’s] other catchphrases include “mutual respect,” “win-win cooperation,” and “positive energy.”

After enduring several years of China’s abusive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, Canadians … may be tempted to look for comfort in this syrupy language. But they should be wary, because while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its envoys have altered their tone, their hostile intentions and harmful policies remain unchanged. Their goals are to enhance economic ties selectively to create dependence and offload overproduction, while sowing political divisions, both among Canadians and between Canada and its allies.

…When Ambassador Wang complains of “smearing and attacking on China” about its treatment of Hong Kongers, Uyghurs, Tibetans and Taiwanese, and “attacking and hyping up” its political interference, espionage, and transnational repression … he’s gaslighting people for objecting to injustice, bullying and massive abuses of human rights.

…Negotiating tip: when Chinese officials declare that two sides “need each other,” it usually signals that the CCP needs something. This year, it’s market access to dump its overproduction of electric vehicles, aluminum and steel. 

A Chatham House paper on Chinese influence operations in the UK. 

And a Spectator column on the same subject…

…why does the [UK] government still refuse to call China a threat? The first reason is economic delusion. Ministers still cling to the idea that China represents a vast commercial opportunity. In truth, it doesn’t. Very few foreign companies make durable profits there; intellectual property is extracted, markets are manipulated, and contracts are enforced only when convenient to China. Britain’s exports to the People’s Republic account for just 3 to 4 per cent of the total – less than we sell to Ireland or the Netherlands. Yet the myth of Chinese indispensability endures.

The same wishful thinking infects investment policy. Successive governments have courted Chinese capital for nuclear plants, energy grids and real estate, mistaking scale for virtue. But the question is not whether China can invest in Britain, but why we would want it to. There is no shortage of allies –Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe – eager to invest in a stable, law-abiding market. The argument for Chinese money has always been a mirage.

The second reason is fear. Ministers are paralysed by the thought of Beijing’s anger. They have seen what happens to countries that cross China: Australia hit with tariffs on wine and barley; Japan cut off from rare earths; Norway punished for awarding a Nobel Prize to a dissident. So they whisper the word ‘threat’ in private but never say it in public, hoping to avoid retaliation.

Yet this logic is precisely backwards. If China is willing to use coercion against middle powers – who, we should remember, are in the main our allies – that is the strongest reason to harden our economic defences. This means building resilience and stockpiling critical minerals. Instead, the UK has chosen inaction. It neither confronts China nor prepares for coercion. The result is paralysis: a policy that offends our allies and reassures no one.

A couple of pieces on China’s economic situation…

China Media Project on Beijing’s official line on China’s economy…

When it comes to China’s economy, the future has never been brighter. That is the point forcefully made this month by a series of eight commentaries published in the official People’s Daily, which repeatedly stress that “to believe in China is to believe in tomorrow.” The articles were written by Zhong Caiwen (钟才文), a very prominent economic expert that no one on earth has ever heard of — because, of course, he does not exist.

…Such homophonous pen names are common in Party-state media, allowing powerful departments to voice official positions while signaling their authority to other Party insiders.

…this bold declaration of confidence, republished by multiple media outlets within China, suffers from a fatal flaw hardwired into how China’s ruling Party continues to communicate even well into the 21st century — a kind of repetition complex. If someone reassures you that everything is just fine, you relax: Good, that’s good to hear. If they say it again, there is a frisson of doubt. And when the reassurance comes a third time, it begins to sound like something other than confidence. You are sure there is much more they are not saying.

Foreign Policy looks at the apparent contradiction between China’s technological prowess and its underlying economic stagnation…

The split screen of techno-wizardry on one side and empty apartment complexes and struggling villages on the other conveys valuable yet only partially accurate pictures of a complex country.

…In many cases, both the upward signs and the worrying ones may seem unconnected but are really two sides of the same coin…

…the high-tech push has not translated into maintaining rapid growth and a stronger macroeconomy. After the boom-boom years of 1980 to 2010, China has seen an uninterrupted 15 years of slowing growth and rising debt—and the tech push is part of the problem.

…China’s sweet spot is moderately difficult technologies that can be tweaked and improved incrementally and then sold in massive amounts at low margins. China has had more difficulty in the most complex, advanced technologies where economies of scale are less valuable. [Such as commercial aircraft,  complex fine chemicals, quantum computing, and high-end precision machining.]

…As capital has been drawn to priority sectors, investment in areas that might produce greater employment or income growth has been crowded out … China lags far behind in many high-value-added service sectors. Among the most prominent are healthcare and education, labor-intensive sectors that would soak up urban employment and provide services that would strengthen human capital.

…China has one of the most poorly educated labor forces in the upper-middle-income world … it will still take decades to achieve the levels that South Korea and Ireland had when they were middle income and striving to move up to high-income status. No country in the world has successfully moved from middle- to high-income status with the low levels of aggregate human capital that China has today.

HKFP on the rise in phone scams since real-name SIM cards became compulsory…

The number of phone scams in Hong Kong has tripled since a real-name SIM card registration system was implemented in 2022, despite the government’s claim that it would help crack down on fraud.

In 2024, police received 9,204 reports of phone scams, up from 3,213 in 2023 and 2,831 in 2022, security chief Chris Tang said on Wednesday, in a written reply to lawmaker Carmen Kan.

…The registration system, which took effect in March 2022, requires new SIM cards to be registered under the user’s real name. The government said the regulation was designed to combat crimes, including phone scams.

…Mainland Chinese students studying in Hong Kong have been scammed out of tens of millions. Two universities – the University of Hong Kong and the City University of Hong Kong – said in January that nearly 100 students had fallen victim to scams, resulting in financial losses exceeding a total of HK$75 million.

Perhaps the real-name requirement was more about tracking national security threats?

David Webb writes his first Substack post – on the ‘Joy Me’ HK$2 transport rides for anyone over 60…

Implementation began in 2012 and was eventually expanded to almost all forms of public transport, including “Public Light Buses” (minibuses), street trams and ferries. You can even get a ferry ride to Discovery Bay, an enclave of private housing on Lantau Island, for HK$2, costing the Government the difference (about HK$53.8) each way. That’s a 96.4% subsidy and frankly, it might as well be 100%. In the 2025 budget, there was a plan to cut subsidies to a maximum of 80% (for fares normally over $10) but this has not yet been implemented.

On 14-Jan-2020, then-Chief Executive Carrie Lam, whose specialty became throwing around public money without means-testing, decided to cut the age limit to 60. This was pure populism in the wake of her, shall we say, “somewhat-misguided” Extradition Bill havoc.

By 2025, the estimated mid-year population of 7.528m included 2.432m over 60, or 32.3%. Almost one-third of the population now attracts this subsidy.

Including me. It’s crazy. Virtually free MTR, bus and ferry rides, and for many better-off recipients, a subsidy from the poor. It also (in my experience) undermines government campaigns to encourage the elderly to exercise. Rather than walk half a mile, why not just jump on a bus for HK$2? The savings, compared with the full fare of, say, HK$8.50, means nothing to me financially, but it’s a psychological thing (a dopamine release, or something).

As David says, the initiative is costing well over HK$4 billion a year, at a time when public expenditure is growing faster than either the underlying economy or government revenues. Part of the problem is that in the pre-NatSec/Covid era, the government had more revenue than it knew what to do with. (If you think HK$4 billion is bad, check the costs of infrastructure white elephants or civil service salaries.) And part of it comes down to the political structure. The tycoons used to oppose democracy because it would supposedly lead to welfarism. Instead, we have a government that lacks a popular mandate, and throws money around – at the wrong people – in an attempt to be liked.

Steve Vines in The Diplomat…

Three remarkable Hong Kongers – Chow Han-tung, Albert Ho, and Lee Cheuk-yan – are about to go on trial in Hong Kong for being Chinese patriots. 

The Chinese state regularly brands pro-democracy activists as being “anti-China,” but how can the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claim that opponents are disloyal to the nation when people accused of subversion have a long history of Chinese patriotism? 

In Hong Kong, now very much under the CCP’s thumb, the consequences of the anti-China smear have resulted in these three defendants being charged with subversion and facing up to a lifetime in jail. Their trial is scheduled to begin on November 11. They have all previously faced a host of other charges which emanate from their role as organizers of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China.

China Digital Times looks at online opinions about the official line that Golden Week crowds reflect a booming economy…

State media hailed the mass travel over this month’s “Super Golden Week” holiday as a sign of profound economic vigor. Xinhua, for example, reported that the “travel boom […] demonstrated the country’s vibrant consumption and sustained economic momentum, highlighting the vitality of the Chinese economy.” 

…Much of the growth, though, could be attributed to the fact that the holiday was 14% longer—an eighth day resulting from the proximity of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Reports from Caixin and Western outlets like Reuters and the Financial Times noted that spending per trip had actually fallen slightly, and referred to masked frugality, tepid consumption, and dashed hopes.

…On WeChat, prolific commentator Xiang Dongliang expressed bewilderment [arguing] against the concentration of so much of the population’s domestic travel into a few nationally uniform peak periods, suggesting that this makes the holidays unnecessarily gruelling, inflexible, and even unsafe. He noted common arguments for the practice such as the benefits of predictable scheduling for public services and safety, financial markets, and schools, but suggested that these do not outweigh the negatives, and in any case do not require full nationwide synchronization. The post is peppered with photos of huge, densely packed crowds in various major tourist destinations. 

Some interesting snippets from online commenters, such as…

An eight-day holiday that includes two weekend days and two days you’ll have to work some other time is really only a four-day break. They’re just loosening the reins a bit on us livestock to stimulate spending.

Great moments in crypto…

Here’s a weird one: two barristers accuse a judge and prosecutors – including a private lawyer acting for the prosecution – of colluding to drag out a jaywalking trial. The case should have lasted two days, but spanned 91 days over a two-year period. At the end, the judge ordered the barristers to pay the prosecution HK$620,000 for wasting time. This was overturned by the Court of Appeal, which said all parties had been wasting the court’s time. The two are now claiming damages…

On Tuesday, Leung and How filed a writ in turn saying they were entitled to a claim of HK$21.4 million from the prosecutors and magistrate Ho, as well as … the Department of Justice.

The barristers said the prosecution drew upon unnecessary and redundant evidence, and accused magistrate Ho of judicial misconduct and abuse of power.

The Standard’s pro-government editorials these days are so fawning that they are almost amusing. From today’s…

For years, the narrative surrounding Hong Kong’s governance has been one of experience and stability. Yet, as the city navigates an increasingly complex global landscape, stability alone is not enough. The recent sight of veteran lawmakers, some above the age of 70, gracefully stepping aside to make way for a new generation is not a sign of weakness, but a powerful signal of renewal. 

Hong Kong’s advancement demands more than just administrators; it requires visionary politicians with a robust international vision, and this generational shift is a pivotal step in that direction.

…The infusion of younger new faces into Hong Kong’s Legislative Council is a welcome move… A legislature that mirrors the demographic diversity of its populace is better equipped to address its needs, fostering policies that are both forward-looking and inclusive.

…The rejuvenation of Hong Kong’s political institutions is more than a cosmetic change; it is a necessary evolution. By fostering a political ecosystem that values both the wisdom of experience and the dynamism of youth, Hong Kong builds a more resilient and representative governance model.

Is it just me, or is there something synthetic about the way the piece draws on every possible, even implausible, argument to put an enthusiastic spin on the all-patriot LegCo clear-out? It must be written by AI, right?

‘Believe nothing until it’s officially denied.’ The CE insists all those LegCo members standing down…

…have told their own reasons, such as family reasons, [the] wish to focus more on matters they care about, academic pursuits, or the desire to pass the torch to the newcomers.

“These are their personal choices. I respect their decisions.”

Some interesting reads…

Frances Hui – an ‘absconder’ with a HK$1 million bounty – writes in The Hill about the treatment of Hong Kong’s imprisoned politicians and activists…

Solitary confinement has become routine retaliation — whether for protesting in the court, being visited by people the corrections department dislikes or for simply receiving “too many” letters. International standards prohibit solitary confinement beyond 15 days, yet in Hong Kong, its use has dramatically increased since 2020, with 42 percent of such cases exceeding one month in 2024.

Pro-democracy advocate and publisher Jimmy Lai, 77, has endured years in solitary, spending more than 23 hours daily in his cell with minimal exercise and only a sliver of natural light through a small window. Former lawmaker Leung Kwok-hung has been assigned no neighbors in adjacent cells, made to work alone and moved through the prison shrouded by tarps. 

(She co-authored the CFHK report on the subject.)

Worth a look: an Asia Society Policy Institute paper on growing spirituality among China’s middle class…

Guided by Marxist theory, China’s leaders once believed that religion would wither as the country became more educated, scientifically advanced, and economically developed. However, many policies meant to hasten modernization have created the very conditions for religion to flourish. As rapid economic development allowed urbanites to become more materially comfortable, many began searching for deeper forms of meaning, guidance, and solace in times of personal or financial crisis. Beijing has attempted to meet these spiritual demands with nationalism and Confucianism-Leninism, but its attempts to win over its most important constituency — the urban middle class — are losing out to other forms of faith. Educated, affluent Chinese have increasingly sought sources of spiritual and religious authority at the margins of party control and influence, including Protestant Christianity, Tibetan Buddhism, and various New Age–inspired forms of spirituality that mix religious concepts with self-help.

The last project on David Webb’s database – remuneration of directors of Hong Kong listed companies, going back 20 years. Intro here, with suggestions for anyone who wants to do some number-crunching. The 2024 table here. Search for your fave tycoon’s kid (eg, Adrian Cheng at number 54, making HK$47 million in salary/benefits alone in 2024).

It seems quite a few sitting members are dropping out of the forthcoming LegCo election. Such a large number doesn’t look like a coincidence, and the word is that the authorities have told them to quit. They include those in or approaching their 70s, including veterans like Michael Tien, Tommy Cheung, Jeffrey Lam, Andrew Leung and Chan Kin-por. Even Regina Ip, who heads her own little party in her tireless attempts to stay relevant as the new Nat-Sec order consolidates, is going to make an announcement ‘in due course’. Also, supposed independent Tik Chi-yuen. RTHK story…

Lam, who announced his decision on Sunday, said there was no need to focus on age when asked about speculation that an age limit of 70 is in the air for legislators.

“There are many different groups in Hong Kong. No one is talking about this,” he said.

Transit Jam has some thoughts…

The retirements highlight the issue with these “elections”: only rubber-stamped individuals can even think about standing as a candidate. When someone like Regina Ip is rumoured for the chop, we know something serious is going on: and for those chopped, going against the “whispered instructions over tea” would be futile.

As I personally found in the relatively humble DC elections, you need a complex set of approvals to become a candidate for even a small local election, and LegCo’s system is designed as an impenetrable firewall.

If you like byzantine/dystopian/Kafkaesque rules – read his full post. Essentially, only candidates ‘rubber-stamped by Beijing’ get on the ballot. His conclusion is that…

…this LegCo cohort will be for keeps and only death or severe disgrace will alter the membership between now and 2047.

(When Hong Kong’s official status as a special administrative region could in theory come to an end).

Another way of putting it: the authorities are taking the opportunity to shed some members who could perhaps be more effusive in their support for the government, and of course to send a message to those that remain.

In particular, the next LegCo will be cleansed of its legacy colonial-era elders – notably Liberal Party tycoons. Once upon a time, these people were loyal to the Brits. Then they became ‘instant noodle’ patriots. They were always privileged rent-seekers contemptuous of the rabble, but they were also at ease in an environment of pluralism, a free press and independent courts. They (not the pro-democracy activists) were the first to really panic in early 2019 at the idea of extradition from Hong Kong to the Mainland. Beijing has no further need of them. The next ‘all-patriot’ LegCo will also be all-trustworthy.

Will it make any difference to you or me? The number of LegCo members we can name will drop to single digits. Otherwise, no.

Samuel Bickett on the trial of Anna Kwok’s father…

He’s accused of “handling assets of an absconder”—a charge transparently designed to punish Anna, who lives abroad and has a bounty on her head from Hong Kong’s National Security Police for her advocacy work.

The prosecution’s agreed facts in court make clear how hollow the case is. In 1999, Anna’s father bought her a small life insurance policy—worth just US$11,000 when it expired in 2020. The prosecution’s own witness, the insurance agent [said] that Mr. Kwok continued paying for the policy himself and that Anna never signed or paid anything. No allegation has been made that Mr. Kwok intended to provide these funds to Anna, or that he has ever financially supported Anna after her arrest warrant.

The insurance agent, who was just doing his job, was interrogated for 14 hours by the National Security Department and threatened with prosecution if he didn’t testify.

This is what “rule of law” looks like in Hong Kong today: a father dragged into court for buying life insurance for his daughter 25 years ago, all to intimidate a democracy activist across the world into silence.

Western companies still operating in Hong Kong should also take note of what was done to this insurance agent: by operating in a city run by thugs, you are putting your employees in danger of interrogation and threats of arrest for simply doing their jobs. 

(For anyone who missed it – earlier HKFP story.)

From HKFP, more on the court case in which ‘absconder’ Anna Kwok’s father is accused of dealing with funds linked to her. It seems Kwok Yin-sang took out insurance plans for Anna and her two siblings back in 1999. His counsel argues that, since she herself (up to last January) never signed anything with AIA to accept responsibility or ownership, the policy was never hers.

The Standard adds…

An insurance agent from AIA, surnamed Cheng, testified that the defendant sought to cancel his daughter’s policy in January.

Defense counsel Steven Kwan Man-wai played a voice message Cheng had sent to Kwok’s son in February, in which she said: “Your dad filled in Kwok Fung-yee’s name and signed it himself, because the real issue is that I can’t get a signature from her. I did explain to your father, but I’m not sure he understood.”

Kwan argued that when Kwok’s son reached adulthood, his policy receipt was also signed by the father to transfer the policyholder’s name — an arrangement that AIA had accepted. 

This, he said, demonstrated that a policyholder’s name does not automatically transfer from the parent to the insured child upon the child turning 18, meaning Kwok Yin-sang remained the policyholder rather than Anna Kwok.

However, AIA’s service director, surnamed Yan, told the court that the insurer’s system automatically changes the policyholder to the insured child once they reach 18, and that the policy’s cash value then belongs to that child.

So somewhere here there’s a national-security threat.

Also: an 89-year-old released on bail after being arrested on October 1 for allegedly acting with seditious intent, apparently in Causeway Bay MTR station.

Writing for Channel News Asia (part of Singapore’s state-owned media monopoly), former SCMP editor Wang Xiangwei asks whether Hong Kong is still Asia’s world city. He cites Mainland companies’ IPOs, the influx of (mostly Mainland) talent under various visa schemes, and an apparent recovery in (mostly Mainland) tourist arrivals…

This resurgence, however, feels lopsided on the ground. The streets are bustling, and the vibrancy is unmistakable. Tourism footfall is up, especially from mainland China, which accounted for nearly 80 per cent of Hong Kong’s visitor arrivals between January and August.

But boarded-up storefronts tell another story. High rents and competition from cheaper cross-border alternatives have hit parts of the retail and restaurant segments hard, even as other sectors, for example jewellery and watches typically favoured by tourists – thrive.

Beneath this uneven recovery looms a larger, strategic question: Is Hong Kong rebounding to reclaim its cherished mantle as Asia’s World City – a cosmopolitan powerhouse akin to New York or London – or is it morphing into China’s World City, a specialised outpost serving the mainland’s ambitions? 

…Perceptions have shifted dramatically; serious doubts now swirl about whether Hong Kong is devolving into “just another Chinese city”. This unease stems partly from the territory’s political elite, who have increasingly embraced mainland-style rhetoric and governance practices. 

…Hong Kong grapples with striking a delicate equilibrium between security and development, and between deeper integration into the mainland economy and its role as a regional hub for international business. 

…Apprehensions that Hong Kong is settling for a diminished role – a regional player on par with Dubai – rather than reclaiming its perch as a global financial titan rivalling New York and London. 

…[the city needs to be] indispensable to China’s modernisation and equally indispensable to global capital seeking exposure to China and Asia. 

To deliver that dual indispensability, Hong Kong must navigate these currents with nuance – honouring Beijing’s directives while safeguarding the openness that once defined it as Asia’s unrivalled world city.

A Kevin Yam post…

if HK is becoming like Tokyo and Seoul in financial markets terms, then that in itself should give those who say “HK is back” pause. Since the Japanese economic bubble burst well over 30 years ago, the Tokyo markets have, while remaining important in many ways, been in the doldrums, despite occasional bursts of optimism driven by the many false dawns that Japan’s economy had over these decades. All signs are now pointing to China starting to go through what Japan had gone through for decades. This should serve as a warning when looking at the sustainability of HK’s current financial markets recovery.

As for Singapore…

Why move to a place that was not yet HK but was becoming nearly as expensive as HK?

My humble opinion: Hong Kong could have been Asia’s equivalent of New York or London, if it had been competently run (focusing on housing and quality of life), and if it had retained its traditional freedoms (no press closures, pan-dem round-ups, Nat-Sec movie censorship, etc). Now it won’t be.

Photos from my former helper, in Lapaz, Bogo City in Cebu, Philippines. Although the recent earthquake hit hardest further north, causing dozens of deaths, houses in her township are now unsafe, so people are sleeping out in fields and a basketball court…