The government issues data on ‘restaurant receipts and purchases for the fourth quarter of 2024 and whole year of 2024’. Stats geek Joel Chan provides the summary above.
In real terms, restaurants saw a 2.4% drop in revenues in 2024. Given that there were no wars, major disease outbreaks or other horrors, this doesn’t look good. GDP grew 2.5% last year and 3.2% in 2023. All else being equal, you would expect spending on dining out to roughly track economic growth – though perhaps not when times require unsustainable government stimulus.
The government provides separate data for what it calls ‘Chinese’ and non-Chinese’ restaurants. They have probably done this since the 1850s or something. It would be more interesting to see separate figures for up-market and cheap places regardless of the types of cuisine. Yet there is a noticeable drop in trade for the ‘Chinese’ outlets. I’d guess middle-class emigration has hit the pricier places, and everyone else – including Mainland tourists – is tightening their belts or changing consumption patterns post-Covid where cheaper shops are concerned. Equivalent figures for Shenzhen would be interesting.
The numbers for ‘non-Chinese’ places look better, though Outback Steakhouse wouldn’t agree. Of course, receipts do not equal profits. Nor do the stats indicate how reliant restaurants are on customers who are highly paid civil servants.
Fast-food purveyors are seeing faster than average growth, which also suggests belt-tightening. The 13% inflation-adjusted drop in income for bars points to an exodus of boozy expats or a shift to drinking at home. Or both.
The government statement says…
Looking ahead, business of restaurants will continue to be supported by the various measures by the Central Government to boost the Mainland economy and benefit Hong Kong, the SAR Government’s proactive efforts to boost market sentiment and promote tourism, and increases in employment earnings…
Whatever happened to strong consumer demand?
Ultimately, it’s structural. The old days are over.
“Looking ahead, business of restaurants will continue to be supported by the various measures by the Central Government to boost the Mainland economy and benefit Hong Kong, the SAR Government’s proactive efforts to boost market sentiment and promote tourism, and increases in employment earnings…”
That’s a whole lotta words to say exactly nuthin’. Strong consumer demands be damned.
More and more Mainland low-cost tour groups and Instagrammers – spending less $ per head and staying here for shorter periods = Make HKG less desirable as a destination for tourists & business people that stay longer and spend more money on a more diverse range of F&B, products & services.
From what I observe on the streets, one catering sector is booming—the affordable “two dish rice” takeaways which are springing up everywhere. I’m not sure if those are included in the “fast food” category, or whether they fall below the statistical radar.
Inferno / MTR
Amplified, a dulcet voice repeats
In Cantonese, in Mandarin, and English,
“Enter now. Abandon every hope.”
Hope of comfort, hope of space; hope of
Sitting, give up even hope of boarding.
A crowd so vast I never had imagined.
A train arrives, with sounds of zoom and clatter.
Already jammed, a mass of people pressed;
Some depart, but even more are boarding.
A woman in a vivid uniform
Officious, helpful, presses on their backs,
Creating space for those who hesitate.
So they depart into the inky tunnel.
Meanwhile, before the next train has arrived,
Another crowd has gathered, lining up.
So modern human beings join a horde –
I do it too – from platform onto train;
A swarm of bees retuning to the hive.
( after Dante’s Inferno, Canto III,
translated by Sean O’Brien )
Bakehouse has queues around the block. Somebody is doing something right.
Hemmers a corollary to your comment there is how many ‘Chinese’ vs ‘non-Chinese’ restaurants closed up during the years. Would a restaurant that closed still report receipts to the government I wonder…