Missing kids

Despite relocating to Taiwan a few months ago, RFA has not forgotten its former base, reporting at some length on the falling number of school children in the city…

Hong Kong is expecting a sharp fall in the number of primary-school-aged children following a mass exodus of middle-class families fleeing a crackdown on political dissent.

The city’s Bureau of Education estimates, based on August 2023 population data from the Census and Statistics Department, that the number of 6-year-olds will fall by 31% from 49,600 in 2024 to 34,100 in 2030.

Many who have left the city did so citing political repression under a draconian security law, along with what they regard as the brainwashing of children in the form of “patriotic” and “national security” classes that are now mandatory from kindergarten to university, as the government encourages people to inform on each other.

…While the population showed a slight uptick following the scrapping of COVID-19 travel curbs, birth rates in the city haven’t caught up, with the number of newborns falling by 38% between 2019 and 2022, according to government data.

…Last month, the Education Bureau sparked a public backlash when it criticized Hong Kong’s schoolchildren for their “weak” singing of China’s national anthem, the “March of the Volunteers,” at flag-raising ceremonies that are now compulsory as part of patriotic “national security” education from kindergarten through to universities.

…Meanwhile, city officials are holding events to encourage praise for ruling Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping.

The Education Bureau on Monday held an event at Pui Kiu Middle School to mark the first anniversary of the school’s receipt of a letter from Xi.

There’s more to come…

Speaking to reporters after the submission, Hong Kong’s sole delegate to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), Starry Lee, said it is the right time to put forward patriotic education.

“It is the right time to do so. First of all, our country [has] our own policy and legislation to govern that. Hong Kong, as part of the country, [we are obligated] to do that. We understand…it will further make ‘One Country, Two Systems’ a more effective system for our own country,” she explained.

Another idea from a lawmaker ahead of the CE’s policy address…

Hong Kong should again allow mainland women whose spouses are not permanent residents to give birth in the city with the aim of increasing the population to 10 million in a decade, Election Committee lawmaker Dennis Lam Shun-chiu has suggested.

…”If Hong Kong wants to maintain competitiveness, it needs to formulate a long-term plan to boost the population to 10 million within 10 years so as to promote sustainable economic growth,” he said while pointing out that the mainland’s international financial hubs, Beijing and Shanghai, each have populations of more than 20 million.

How does boosting the population promote sustainable economic growth?

Some weekend reading and viewing…

Video interview with Michael Pettis on the effect of falling property prices in China. “Low real estate prices are better for the economy than high ones. Higher property prices make some richer but others poorer.”

At least it’s not the End Times – the Guardian looks at the growing belief that China is entering a new, trashier, era…

In recent weeks, Chinese chat groups and WeChat feeds have been buzzing with discussion of whether China has entered a period of economic stagnation or regression in which failure is all but inevitable, called a “garbage time of history”.

The sentiment can be summed up by a graphic, widely shared on social media – and since censored on Weibo.

Entitled the “2024 misery ranking grand slam”, it tallies up the number of misery points that a person might have earned in China this year. The first star is unemployment. For two stars, add a mortgage. For a full suite of eight stars, you’ll need the first two, plus debt, childrearing, stock trading, illness, unfinished housing and, finally, hoarding Moutai, a famous brand of baijiu, a sorghum liquor.

(Helpful tip: if you’ve ever drunk Kweichow Moutai – HK$3,000-plus a bottle – and thought it utterly revolting, it’s because it needs to be accompanied by the extremely spicy and sour cuisine of southwestern China. You’re welcome.)

Also in the Guardian – single Chinese women go to Prague to freeze their eggs.

Center for European Policy Analysis piece sees ‘recent purges, disappearances, and mysterious deaths among officials’ as a sign that the CCP’s days are numbered… 

A foreign minister (Qin Gang) disappeared and no one, except Xi and his henchmen, knew if he was dead or alive.  A popular former premier (Li Keqiang) drowned.  His death was uninvestigated and unexplained.  Two ministers of defense (Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu) were purged in late June.  They were both expelled from the CCP; which heralds further punishment down the line.

An estimated 120 high-ranking officials, including military officers, executives of state-owned enterprises, and national leaders, have departed, in one way or another (including commanders of the People’s Liberation Army rocket force, a key element of the military.) These recent arrests mark something new.

It’s true that in the 14 years since he came to power, Xi’s security forces have arrested, sentenced, or executed approximately 2.3 million government officials. But few were of such seniority.

But Qin Gang is recognized as still alive…

Qin Gang, China’s former foreign minister who disappeared from public view more than a year ago, has lost his seat as a member of the elite Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party.

The decision was reviewed during the Politburo meeting held earlier this month and formally endorsed at the four-day meeting of the third plenary session, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Thursday, citing a communique from the meeting.

The wording suggests he is not under criminal investigation.

There continues to be much speculation about the fate of China’s shortest-serving foreign minister, whose disappearance the ministry attributed to “health reasons”.