Greater Bay Area opportunities found!

A Bloomberg story

Hong Kong’s third-largest supermarket chain U Select, run by state-owned conglomerate China Resources Holdings Co., has almost halved its network in less than a year as the city’s retailers struggle with economic headwinds and residents flock across the border for cheaper shopping.

…Sales at Hong Kong’s supermarkets plunged 14% year-over-year in January and have been in decline for 18 consecutive months, the longest stretch since record-keeping began in October 2005, according to government statistics.

…Hong Kong travel agencies even offer package tours including membership cards and hours of shopping at Costco and Sam’s Club in nearby mainland Chinese cities. Neither has a branch in Hong Kong, where space is limited, rents are high and the market is dominated by local giants.

Whatever the exact reasons for U Select’s downsizing, a lot of stores and restaurants are having a hard time in Hong Kong these days. Some never recovered from Covid, and others have lost customers to NatSec-spurred emigration. And then there’s the Shenzhen factor. 

For years, Carrie Lam, CY Leung, John Lee and others have implored Hong Kong people to ‘seize Greater Bay Area opportunities’. Meanwhile, governments on both sides built faster rail connections and more, bigger, faster immigration checkpoints, with more coming. Now, for many residents of the New Territories, Shenzhen is as quick and easy to get to as Causeway Bay or TST. And the Yuan has weakened. Obviously, people will ‘seize opportunities’ to save money by crossing the border where shopping, dining and ‘night vibes’ are half the price. 

Did Hong Kong bureaucrats – who are petrified of falling land valuations – think ‘integration’ through? If you make the border more porous, what will keep Hong Kong retail prices double or treble those in the rest of the Greater Pearl River Delta? What will keep commercial rents here around five times higher than those a few miles north in Shenzhen (per another recent Bloomberg article)? A narrowing of the price gap will be inevitable as consumers vote with their wallets.

Remember Ross Perot’s ‘giant sucking sound’? 

This doesn’t factor in any decline in the ‘Hong Kong premium’ that people and groups are/were willing to pay to be in a place with freedom and rule of law. Can you differentiate and integrate at the same time? As a little reminder: the government complains about a British newspaper saying Hongkongers could be jailed for having old newspapers. The fact is…

The government also said only individuals who possess a publication that has a seditious intention, without a reasonable excuse, would be deemed to have committed the offence, according to the proposed national security legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law.

“Whether a publication has a seditious intention will have to be determined after all relevant circumstances are taken into consideration, including the context and purpose of the publication. Relevant provisions of the [national security bill] also stipulate circumstances that do not constitute a seditious intention,” the spokesperson said.

“As regards the offence of possessing a publication with a seditious intention, the prosecution has to prove that the defendant possesses the publication concerned without reasonable excuse before the defendant may be convicted by the court. It is not possible for a person who does not know that the publication concerned has a seditious intention to be convicted.”

And as Andy Li – currently held at a psychiatric facility – starts to give evidence, Asia Times offers a background on the Jimmy Lai trial…

Lai is accused of “conspiring to collude with foreign forces” under China’s national security law for the HKSAR and conspiring to “print, publish, sell, offer for sale, distribute, display and/or reproduce seditious publications” under the HKSAR’s sedition law. If convicted, Lai could be sentenced to life in prison.

On January 2, 2024, Lai pleaded not guilty to all charges. However, given how Hong Kong’s once-independent judicial system has operated since China promulgated the national security law in June 2020, Lai’s conviction is almost a foregone conclusion. The only real outstanding question about the show trial is the length of Lai’s prison sentence.

The author ‘taught at Hong Kong Baptist University from 1991-1992 [and] served as the Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s assistant chief economist from 1994-1998…’

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Neither LegCo nor priests what they used to be

Security Secretary Chris Tang answers questions about ‘absconders’ – a major bug-bear of the NatSec system. Under the Article 23 NatSec law, the authorities will cancel travel documents and (it seems) professional qualifications after a six-month period. If an absconder’s parents withdraw their own cash in Hong Kong and fly overseas to deliver it to him/her, they could get seven years in prison…

At a Legco bills committee meeting, lawmakers said the period is too long, with DAB chairman Gary Chan saying that endangering national security is “something worse than murder and arson”.  

The Standard adds

Former security minister, now New People’s Party lawmaker Lai Tung-kwok, as well as Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong chairman Gary Chan Hak-kan said the administration is “too kind” to only define suspects as “absconded” six months after a warrant is issued, as many fugitives have bad-mouthed Hong Kong after leaving the SAR.

Election Committee sector lawmaker Peter Koon Ho-ming said: “I am a priest, but government officials seem to have even more mercy than me.”

In response, Tang said: “If even the priest said so, I will consider it more seriously.”

That’s the same Koon from yesterday who called Apple Daily a ‘lousy newspaper’; also of Chan Tong-kai Taiwan murder suspect/extradition bill fame. From the SCMP in 2017

In the eyes of his critics, Reverend Peter Koon Ho-ming is an outspoken cleric who has gladly embraced the Communist Party as if it is a benevolent master over Hong Kong.

But the 51-year-old provincial secretary general of the local Anglican church said his detractors have it all wrong. Not only were his uncles purged during the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, Koon said, he wept and felt betrayed as he saw the Union flag come down on June 30, 1997 – the night the British government handed the city over to Chinese leadership.

But seems he got over it.

Speaking of the ‘will I be imprisoned for having an old newspaper?’ question, ExCo member Ronny says

“If you keep a copy at home as a memento and read it in the loo in your free time, it proves that you do not have a mens rea [an intention to commit an offence],” Tong told a radio show on Monday.

“But if you show it to people visiting your place from time to time and say ‘It is different now. What was said before is true’, then you may be committing an offence with seditious intention as you are using it to achieve subversion or other unlawful purposes.”

Store it in the loo – keep a lid on it.

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Public consultation, 1st and 2nd readings over already

Full text of the ‘Safeguarding National Security’ Bill. A full round-up from HKFP

Among other things: life sentences for treason, insurrection and sabotage; a maximum 10-year sentence for sedition; possible extended detention without charge for NatSec suspects; powers to limit NatSec suspects’ right to a lawyer; possible secret trials; vague definitions of such things as ‘state secrets’; and possible bans on organizations involved in ‘foreign interference’.

The authorities are pushing the claim that all this is equivalent to free countries’ national-security laws. But – for example – in such jurisdictions sedition cannot apply to mere words (if the offense exists at all), extended detention and secret trials are reserved for rare cases of terrorism or espionage, and governments don’t accuse overseas critics of ‘interference’ in frequent press statements.

A Diplomat article says

It’s widely seen as the latest step in a crackdown on political opposition that began after the semi-autonomous Chinese city was rocked by violent pro-democracy protests in 2019. Since then, the authorities have crushed the city’s once-vibrant political culture. 

…Hong Kong leader John Lee has urged legislators to push the Safeguarding National Security Bill through “at full speed,” and lawmakers began debate hours after the bill was released publicly. It’s expected to pass easily, possibly in weeks, in a legislature packed with Beijing loyalists following an electoral overhaul.

…The bill allows prosecutions for acts committed anywhere in the world for most of its offenses.

…It defined national security as a status in which the state’s political regime and sovereignty are relatively free from danger and threats, so are the welfare of the people and the state’s economic and social development among other “major interests.”

The bottom line is that Article 23 brings Hong Kong closer to Mainland levels of control. If you want to say ‘1 Country, Two Systems’ is still intact, you could point out that the city still lacks a ‘picking arguments and trouble’ catch-all charge, overt Internet censorship and broad measures against fake news. But there is more uncertainty.

Kevin Yam says

[Restricted right to legal representation] is a clear breach of the right to legal representation of one’s choice under Article 35 of #HongKong Basic Law.

But would an HK court strike this down if anyone still dares to challenge it? Don’t count on it.

From HKFP

For an economist working for an international bank, the biggest risk “is that increasingly sometimes you don’t really know where the red line is”.

Banks, firms and investors regularly rely on research, economic data and due diligence reports which could fall under the purview of “state secrets”.

The economist, who declined to be named for fear of repercussions, told AFP there could be a situation where a published analysis would affect investors’ sentiment in Hong Kong.

“Will they (the authorities) come back to me?” he questioned. “Is (the report) a threat to so-called economic security?”

University World News on the impact on academia

Several Hong Kong-based academics approached by University World News said the draft law was “too sensitive” to criticise publicly.

Privately, they said it will have a dramatic effect on universities’ open culture. They said the crimes are defined so broadly in the government’s consultation document released last month that it is unclear where the legal boundaries lie.

Reg asks: would late Wuhan Covid whistleblower Li Wenliang have been guilty of disclosure of state secrets under Article 23? Apparently, he should have taken ‘reasonable steps’ first. (For a reminder of how secrecy caused the Covid outbreak, check out this recent HKFP op-ed.)

One additional item of weirdness – some old newspapers might now be illegal

Lawmaker Peter Koon Ho-ming said residents saving old copies of Apple Daily were worried and wondered if they had to dispose of them.

…“Apple Daily is absolutely seditious and some people feel like saving a copy or two at home to keep a record of such a lousy newspaper,” Koon told the Legco meeting.

“Does that make it possession of a seditious publication?”

…Secretary for Security Chris Tang Ping-keung said a collector of old Apple Daily copies [he didn’t mention the paper by name] might need to invoke the reasonable excuse clause in the law as a defence.

“[If] one has kept that publication for a long time without knowing it is still there, and there is no purpose of using it for incitement, I believe this can be a reasonable excuse,” he said.

So if you know you have a few old Apple Dailys in your souvenir box, you’re committing a crime? (What about archives held by media groups or academics?) Especially worrying since the Article 23 bill also removes suspended sentences for sedition. The SCMP adds…

Professor Simon Young Ngai-man, a legal expert at the University of Hong Kong, said it was troubling that those convicted of sedition, such as for possessing seditious publication, would be deprived of suspended sentences.

“One can imagine some very trivial cases that could warrant a suspended sentence. The options now will be probation or community service order at one extreme and jail at the other,” Young said.

(RTHK report.)

Mike Rowse says all will be OK if only Hong Kong could organize a massive super mega-event…

We will need a genuine mega event soon. Once Article 23 security legislation is enacted, the foreign media will be full of stories about Hong Kong not being safe for foreigners to visit. The best way to counter this narrative will not be with “wolf-warrior diplomacy” but something so spectacular that everyone in the world will want to come and see it for themselves. We must put our thinking caps on and be prepared to spend big.

Updates on the Jimmy Lai trial.

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A NatSec-heavy Friday

DJ-activist Tam Tak-chi loses his appeal against his 2022 sedition conviction. From AFP…

The sedition offence, formerly a little-used relic of Hong Kong’s British colonial era, was dusted off as Beijing launched a crackdown on dissent in the financial hub following 2019’s democracy protests.

It was used to convict radio DJ and democracy activist Tam Tak-chi in 2022 in the first sedition trial since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to China. He was sentenced to 40 months in jail for over 11 offences, including seven counts of “uttering seditious words”.

Judges rejected Tam’s appeal Thursday, ruling it was unnecessary to prove intention to incite violence to convict a defendant of sedition.

“Modern experiences show that seditious acts or activities endangering national security now take many diversified forms,” they said in a written judgment.

Such as… wearing T-shirts? Did the words people utter really shift suddenly in 2019, compared with 2015, or 1995? Or was it the ruling power’s level of tolerance that changed?

This comes just months after the UK’s Privy Council ruled on a case from Commonwealth state Trinidad and Tobago that sedition must include an intention to incite violence or disorder… 

Hong Kong High Court Chief Justice Jeremy Poon said Thursday the court “has reservations” on whether the Privy Council ruling is applicable.

“Seditious intention in any given criminal code must be interpreted by reference to the specific legal and social landscape in which it exists,” he said.

The 1920s sedition law was barely used up to 2022, since when it has been used to charge various individuals and media outlets, Alvin Lum adds

The court said the proof of intention to incite violence will be against the sedition law’s legislative intent, and went on to back the very ruling that criminalise Ta Kung Pai’s editors in the 1950’s.

FWIW, the TKP editors were fined and order to suspend TKP was rescinded.

Takeaway: not only this ruling will have direct bearing on pending sedition trials like Stand News case, the judges have gone at length at each possible argument against sedition, which might even make it difficult for the top court to read down/in the offence.

And the Article 23 NatSec Law looks likely to be introduced in the legislature today. As part of it, the government might extend the 48-hour period for which people arrested on NatSec charges can be detained by an additional 14 days. It looks like the authorities will also be able to bar certain lawyers from representing accused. A ‘public interest’ defence for revealing state secrets would come with an ‘extremely high threshold where the safety of a large number of people could be endangered unless a state secret is divulged’. The Justice Secretary also says that priests should ideally report acts of treason mentioned during parishioners’ confessions. (Don’t say you weren’t warned. Anyway, is treason necessarily a sin?)

Proof that the government can listen to public opinion: officials apparently backtrack on the Gigantic Patriotic Museum-Reshuffle.

Some weekend reading…

An SCMP op-ed suggests ditching the Lantau artificial islands reclamation…

A white elephant that is stillborn would cost far less than one that dies fully grown.

As the project stands, seldom has so colossal, costly and complex a scheme come with such shoddy analysis, unproven assumptions and slogan-driven publicity akin to real estate marketing. Since the government announced the initial version of the project in 2014, it has focused on a handful of numbers – the area to be reclaimed, the number of residents – plus a proposed central business district.

…East Lantau Metropolis was apparently intended to drive the development of Lantau, while Lantau Tomorrow Vision was to help integrate Hong Kong further into the Greater Bay Area. The Kau Yi Chau project is now marketed as an extension of western Hong Kong Island that would form a harbour metropolis. This is as good as selling the same drink in three different bottles, as beer, wine and champagne.

Constructing 1,000 hectares of land for 500,000 residents in the middle of the sea, connected only by a tunnel to Hong Kong Island 4km away, should be a non-starter conceptually. 

A WSJ op-ed casts doubt on Beijing’s official economic growth figures…

How does China grow 5% despite so many headwinds, from collapsing property investment to declining population? Very likely, it doesn’t. Actual growth is probably slower, perhaps a lot slower.

…China routinely revises down previous years’ indicators, making current-year growth look stronger, without revising down earlier growth. In December, the NBS revised down the level of nominal GDP in 2022 by 0.5%, which served to boost growth in 2023, yet it kept growth for 2022 at 3%.

…China’s data quality is still subpar. Relative to other countries, GDP comes out uncommonly fast yet is hardly ever revised and lacks basic information such as quarterly consumer, business and government expenditure, said Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, who oversaw the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook and is now at the Brookings Institution. “The statistical standards are not up to the level they ought to be,” he said. 

The Philippines Defense Dept calls China’s actions in the South China Sea ‘patently illegal and downright uncivilized’.

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You reap what you sow

A major mouth-froth eruption over headlines on Bloomberg’s subscriber-only terminal news service…

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government today (March 6) strongly disapproved of and condemned Bloomberg’s news headlines “HK says Telegram should be prohibited in Article 23 proposal” and “HK says Signal should be prohibited in Article 23 proposal”, and its report headlined “HK Security Law Public Consultation Lists Facebook, YouTube Ban”, which falsely reported that the HKSAR Government would legislate to ban the operation of the mentioned platforms in Hong Kong, thereby generating misunderstanding and panic regarding the legislative proposals on Article 23 of the Basic Law.

The two headlines (from what I gather) had no stories attached, and stayed up for less than half an hour before someone realized the mistake. There was indeed an error: the proposals that Hong Kong ban social media were included in a summary of feedback (starts page 119) from the public consultation on the Article 23 National Security Law. However, the headline of the report, stating that a Facebook and YouTube ban was listed in the summary, was accurate, and (again, from what I gather) the story did not state that the government was planning a ban.

Although only subscribers would have seen the headlines, word got around pretty quickly. Hence the outraged press statement, which went on…

…the report in question only one-sidedly handpicked three entries of submissions received among all others and completed it with a biased headline, attempting to mislead the international community and members of the public in the HKSAR in believing that the HKSAR Government is going to accept such views or to prohibit the relevant platforms from operating in the HKSAR. Its intention is indeed suspicious. The fake news as published by Bloomberg has undermined its trustworthiness and credibility in the media sector. 

Now officials are furiously denying that they have any intention to ban social media. (RTHK story. The Standard’s. And Bloomberg’s – somewhat updated.)

The government’s extreme reaction to an editorial mistake (‘attempting to mislead’, ‘indeed suspicious’, ‘fake news’) has a slight hand-caught-in-cookie-jar, protesting-too-much feel to it. (And of course the authorities have considered laws against ‘fake news’.)

The fact that the rumour (‘HK to ban Signal, Telegram’) spread so quickly suggests that many people believe such a measure is possible in today’s Hong Kong. Which wouldn’t be surprising after months and months of dire warnings from Security Bureau and other officials about ‘foreign forces’, supposed terrorist plots, overseas ‘fugitives’, the evils of ‘soft resistance’ – not to mention a desire to ban certain YouTube videos. Meanwhile, the handful of government-friendly figures who suggest that the authorities tone down the NatSec rhetoric have been criticized by ‘patriots’. 

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OK, but can we stick pins in their effigies?

‘Villain hitting’ is more popular than ever this year. But police advise the elderly women who will curse your enemies by hitting pictures of them under the Canal Road flyover not to use photos of people. This presumably means pictures of government officials. Which suggests that someone high up in the administration is somewhat thin-skinned. Or perhaps they are adopting the Mainland authorities’ dim view of feudal superstitions. (Would beating a picture of a government minister count as sedition or subversion?)

The BBC asks ‘Can a rubber stamp parliament help China’s economy?’ If the question doesn’t answer itself, Betteridge’s Law tells us ‘Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word ‘no’’. (So that answers the pins-in-effigies header.)

Like so many media, the Beeb describes China as ‘Asia’s [if not the world’s] engine of growth’. So what is the fuel for this engine? Answer: demand. And where is the demand in the global economy? Not in China, where consumption accounts for barely 50% of GDP – but in the US, where it makes up 80% of it. China does not fuel/drive/whatever the global economy.

For equities fans tempted by China’s low valuations – Goldman Sachs advises clients not to invest there…

“All our clients are asking us that question — given how cheap China appears, people inevitably say, well, has it discounted the worst news?” Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Our view is that one should not invest in China.”

She cited a host of reasons for her take, including expectations for a steady slowdown in the economy over the next decade. China will struggle with a weakening in the three pillars of growth up to now — the property market, infrastructure and exports, she said. A lack of clarity on China’s policymaking, along with patchy economic data, add to concerns about investing there, Mossavar-Rahmani said.

China’s Communist leadership has over the past year emphasized the importance of information security and put curbs on what data can be removed from the nation. The statistics bureau also suspended for a time some unemployment figures. On Monday, Beijing announced that the country’s premier — second only to President Xi Jinping — will discontinue a decades-long tradition of annual press briefings at a key gathering.

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More space for cars – outside Hong Kong

Renewed relevance for the HK-Zhuhai Bridge – parking spaces for (eventually) 6,000 cars at a location much but not all of the way from Zhuhai to Hong Kong…

“You can also park your car there even if you don’t have a flight. You can go directly to the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Port and that counts as an arrival entry.”

By ‘port’ they mean the bridge’s vast immigration complex near the airport. You could put a whole town there.

But who do they mean by ‘you’? The SCMP story makes clear that this is aimed at Mainland car owners, particularly those heading to the airport.

But it’s not exactly super-convenient. You (ie they) still have to take a bus after getting to the ‘port’, as Hong Kong proper doesn’t have enough capacity for extra cars on its streets. 

And why is it such a big deal for driving to the ‘port’ to count as an ‘arrival entry’?

In theory, the idea is to lure more Mainland passengers to fly out of Hong Kong, though it also looks like a desperate attempt to get some traffic onto the massive underutilized fixed link. I went over the bridge on a recent trip to Macau – for fun – and counted the vehicles zipping by on the three lanes in the other direction for one minute at around 10.30am: two cars, one truck and one bus. Or maybe the bureaucrats want more objects, of some sort, to make all that concrete expanse look vaguely busy.

(The immigration halls at both the Hong Kong and Macau ends are similarly vast and 95% empty. It really looks and feels like the whole system was designed for 20 times more users than it attracts.)

From HKFP – a ‘head to head’ on Article 23. On the skeptics’ side, journalist and lecturer Chris Yeung outlines the concerns of the press. On the ‘pro’ side, People’s Party lawmaker and nephew of a former Macau Chief Executive Adrian Ho says ‘only in a safe environment can freedom flourish’ and other government talking points. In fairness, he doesn’t overdo the laborious official line about Western countries also having NatSec laws.

We all know that calling for international sanctions against Hong Kong officials is collusion or subversion or whatever. Ask Ted Hui. But what about asking for sanctions to be lifted on one?

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Saving ‘two sessions’ excitement for later

Bloomberg’s report on the US Consul General’s comments on Article 23…

US Consul General Gregory May cautioned that connectivity issues and data security concerns had prompted some American companies to use burner phones and laptops when visiting the once free-wheeling enclave.

“Hong Kong is starting to go down the slope of trying to take certain content off the internet and blocking certain websites,” he told Bloomberg News on Thursday. “It is kind of a slippery slope once you start that internet censorship. Where does that end?”

…“Releasing Jimmy Lai and these other people facing jail for political expression — releasing them would do more to improve Hong Kong’s image than all the financial summits and tourism promotion campaigns put together,” May said.

…“The last thing Hong Kong needs after the NSL are more, very broad, new crimes,” May said. 

…“If you are operating in Hong Kong, US firms have to be mindful of their reputation on Capitol Hill,” he said. “Some of them are rightly concerned about coming under the cross-hairs in the United States because Hong Kong is doing things like bounties that show a very negative side — and the US is reacting to that.”

The government response criticizes ‘scaremongering’, with the anonymous spokesman saying…

“…The US has even at every turn suppressed dissidents through covert surveillance, illegal wiretapping, and global manhunt, and is in no position to point its finger at other countries and regions for making their own legislation for safeguarding national security legitimately. The US Consul General also deliberately ignored the HKSAR’s constitutional duty and practical needs for the Basic Law Article 23 legislation, and blatantly smeared the Basic Law Article 23 legislation and the law enforcement actions conducted in accordance with the law…”

When was the last time the US ‘suppressed dissidents through global manhunt’? (Or is this an attempt to get the Assange bores on side?)

A Diplomat piece reiterates concerns

We are witnessing in real time the Hong Kong authorities’ scramble to fill in what little holes remain in the otherwise total control under the NSL. The imminent expansion under Article 23 of the Basic Law will move Hong Kong a step closer toward Beijing-style internet governance. 

This is about more than just one song and one internet search provider. “Glory to Hong Kong” is a canary in the coal mine. The authorities are seeking to hold internet intermediaries in Hong Kong under the same yoke imposed upon companies doing business in mainland China. We have already seen the concessions forced upon the likes of Apple and Microsoft in the mainland. 

…In light of Hong Kong’s claim of extraterritoriality in national security affairs, global tech companies must further take into account how the changing legal environment in Hong Kong may expose them to legal penalty for failure to act on global censorship demands, and the concerns this raises for internet freedom around the world.  

A load more weekend reading that came in late…

Not a very interesting Telegraph article, but impressive pic/headline and pic.

China Leadership Monitor looks at the limits to China’s military-industrial state…

China seems to be losing direction after Xi Jinping gained absolute dominance during the 2022–23 round of leadership reorganization. This was initially demonstrated in December 2022 when he abruptly abandoned his “zero-Covid” policy.[1] Since spring 2023,  despite attempts to attract foreign investment that have been highlighted in both the leaders’ speeches and state media, the state has continued to raid or shut down foreign businesses to protect so-called state security.[2] A bigger surprise came in summer 2023, when Xi suddenly purged Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu, both of whom, as Xi’s confidantes, had recently been promoted.[3] Foreign policy moves contradicting Xi’s earlier foreign policy positions also took place, following, in particular, Xi’s San Francisco trip in November 2023.[4] Despite some adjusted wording, however, so far there has been no decisive, fundamental change in his political rationale; there are also no signs indicating that his power is being challenged or undermined. So, what explains these self-contradictory developments in Chinese politics? Why is Xi Jinping’s unprecedented concentration of power producing schizophrenic policy consequences?

Long story short: ‘the core of the dilemma lies in the tensions between Xi’s personnel appointments for governance purposes and Xi’s personal concerns about political control, which are inherent to his dictatorial concentration of power and his neo-Maoist governance program.’

In the (paywalled) WSJ – how a Chinese netizen posed online as an Iranian to fool China’s censorship regime…

The text of a letter purportedly sent from a Tehran prison began to circulate on the Chinese internet last year around Lunar New Year. Its author, writing under the name Mahsa, described how Iranian secret police snatched her during a crackdown on anti-headscarf protests and interrogated her about her feminist beliefs.

…the letter reached thousands of Chinese readers, many of whom marveled at its familiar descriptions of state control. “Is this a strange land?” wrote one user on the popular social-media platform Weibo. “Or is this the homeland?” 

The answer arrived weeks later when a new version appeared on overseas websites. It had footnotes and an epilogue revealing that “Mahsa” was a Chinese writer who had adopted the persona of an Iranian protester to tell the story of her own detention and interrogation. That writer would turn out to be Wu Qin, a former editor at a state-run media outlet. Recently translated into English, Wu’s letter is a rare example of subversive writing in China that has managed to have enduring impact. Barriers to communication have soared to new heights as leader Xi Jinping gives priority to security above all else. In reaching for a roundabout way to tell her story, Chinese observers say, Wu has opened a new window into the challenges activists in China now wrestle with, and the links they have with others laboring under authoritarian rule around the globe.

…She had paid close attention to the protests in Iran against headscarves. To give herself some distance from her experiences, she came up with the idea of writing about them as if they had taken place there instead. Cloaking her story in foreign clothing had the secondary benefit of helping it slip past censors, she said.

She gave Persian names to her friends and some prominent Chinese dissidents, and switched Chinese place names for places in Iran, which she had visited twice before. She said she named herself Mahsa in tribute to Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old whose 2022 death in police custody in Tehran sparked the Iranian protests.

…Parts of the letter contain minor details that are unlikely to be set in Iran, such as the crime of “picking quarrels,” which only exists in China. Wu said she hoped those hints would be picked up by her readers, but not the censors. 

From a perhaps-obscure Indian strategic studies outlet – Russia prepares for a possible invasion by China.

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Few abscondees reply

The one-month public consultation on the Article 23 NatSec law legislation concludes, with a stunning and breathtakingly wonderful 98.64% of responses saying they absolutely love it …

A spokesman for the Security Bureau said, “While it takes time to take stock of the number of views received at the end, according to the preliminary figures as at 11.59pm yesterday (February 28), the HKSAR Government received a total of 13 147 submissions during the consultation period, which are mainly by email, post and fax. Among them, 12 969 (98.64 per cent of the total) show support and make positive comments; while 85 (0.65 per cent of the total) purely contain questions or opinions therein that cannot reflect the authors’ stance and 93 (0.71 per cent of the total) oppose the legislative proposals, amongst them over 10 are overseas anti-China organisations or abscondees. 

Could it be a case of quantity versus quality? From HK Rule of Law Monitor – overseas lawyers comment on Article 23…

The Paper states blandly that “safeguarding national security is fundamentally consistent with the respect and protection of human rights”. This is conceptually wrong and fails to consider the proportionality test in full…

The definitions of “national security” and “state secrets” are adopted wholesale from the mainland…

The Paper does not provide for defences for acting in the public interest, whistleblowing, genuine news reporting etc…

…The offences are so wide that a person chanting a prohibited slogan in a public place, without anyone present to hear it, could nonetheless be convicted of a national security offence merely because of their intent…

Cherry-picking overseas references … References to overseas laws are self-serving…

…By adopting a hard-handed approach, the government risks shutting out opportunities to improve its governance…

Asia Times on the views of foreign chambers of commerce…

The new definition of state secrets may increase the perception that the “one country” aspect of Hong Kong’s special status is more in focus than the “two systems,” Johannes Hack, the president of the German Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, told the Associated Press in an email interview.

“For Hong Kong to present a distinctive business advantage vis-a-vis the mainland, the two systems part is however quite important,” he said. “Hong Kong in our view should be different ‘in fact and feeling.’”

He said additional costs to comply with the “quite broad definition” of state secrets may cause foreign investors to move elsewhere.

Other groups’ feedback in HKFP.

It’s the third anniversary of the arrests of the HK 47 – 32 have been in jail for 1,098 days.

A Standard editorial slaps Reg over her comments on subsidized transport…

An argument that the HK$2 scheme is flawed has been the suggestion that the elderly riders were petty and inconsiderate, liking to hop on long-haul buses for short journeys to inflict greater expenses on the government since it would cost more to subsidize a longer journey.

That was an idiotic argument championed by political figures including Executive Council convenor Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, who was among the first to denounce the scheme a year ago.

The paper also rejoices at the lifting of stamp duties on real estate…

A high-rise 415 square-foot flat at Siu Hei Court in Tuen Mun was to be sold at HK$3.08 million, however the buyer immediately put it on sale for HK$3.38 million after the government scrapped property cooling measures. It is expected that the buyer will make a profit of more than HK$200,000 after fees.

Another confirmor deal came from a low-priced unit at Tsuen Wan Center. Dubbed “Paradise of Speculators,” the housing estate reported that a home of 329 sq ft sold for HK$2.88 million on Wednesday, even though the holder raised the asking price by HK$80,000.

Previously, the homeowner at the Tsuen Wan Center trimmed the reserve price to HK$2.8 million but there were no takers.

…With all curbs gone, people who speculate homes valued at HK$3 million or below only need to pay HK$100 for stamp duty, which makes the low-priced units popular among speculators.

Yippee!

Some weekend reading…

RFA interview with HKU historian Frank Dikotter…

There is a profound failure on the part of a great many people, politicians, experts and scholars outside China to simply listen to what all of these leaders said very clearly and also to read and understand what’s been happening. The failure is reasonably straightforward. It is a refusal to believe that a communist — a Chinese communist — is a communist.

…it’s probably safe to assume that a system based on the separation of powers, including freedom of the press and a solid judicial system, would probably be beneficial, for instance, for the economy. … This is basically a modern economic model based on debt. You spend to create the illusion of growth. Then you spend more. My feeling is that there may be people in the People’s Republic of China who are probably thinking about whether this is really a successful system or not.

… [the CCP are] quite convinced that you can have a Leninist system of monopoly over power, a Marxist system which controls the banks, controls the prices of energy, controls most state enterprises, controls the land, and yet have economic growth. That is what they believe. So why should Hong Kong be any different?

Translation by Geramie Barme of a banned Li Chengpeng essay looking back at 2023.

The latest entry in CMP’s dictionary – the so-called ‘so-called’

Noah Smith – expert-on-everything author of an online newsletter – stating the semi-obvious on China’s missed opportunity…

…the Chinese Communist Party, especially under Xi Jinping, has focused China’s economy on creating more of what they want, instead of creating more of what the Chinese people themselves want. This may be one reason that popular confidence in China’s government is beginning to wane.

Technologically and scientifically, China is clearly now among the world’s leading nations; in some respects, it’s ahead of the US. But it’s very hard to think of major new discoveries or inventions that have come out of China in the past quarter century.

From Business Insider – how China’s electric vehicle industry could dominate the world.

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Budget snooze

HKFP’s Budget round-up. Quick summary: a lack of any original thinking.

We must scrap various stamp duties on property transactions in an attempt to push housing prices up, thus – in theory – enabling government to go back to relying heavily on land and development rights for revenue. What we really need is cheaper government and a broader, less distorting tax base. (In fairness, there’s a slight bump in the top rate of salaries tax, though apparently to offset a small cut for lower earners).

And we must spend money on trying to attract bigger and bigger numbers of tourists through ‘mega-events’ and monthly drone/fireworks shows. The Mainland-tourist obsession dates back 20 years to post-SARS recovery. Today, we have a shortage of labour – so why try pumping up a space-hungry low-value economic activity? Why can’t anyone just say that we don’t need more visitors? (Though, confusingly, there’s restoration of a small tax on hotel stays, to balance things out.)

Mized picture on boondoggles. Slight postponement of the Lantau reclamation project. Financial Secretary Paul Chan says it will definitely go ahead. (Wanna bet on that?) But HK$2 billion for an ‘InnoLife Healthtech Hub’ at the ‘Hong Kong Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park’ – ie the Lok Ma Chau Loop.

And possible reductions in travel subsidies for the elderly and disabled. There’s some logic to this, especially with an aging population – why should someone like me spend just HK$2 to take the HK$45 Central-Peng Chau ferry at the weekend? But it will go down like a cup of cold sick if they actually scrap the subsidies for existing beneficiaries. I’d guess they’ll gradually increase the cut-rate fares and push up the qualification age to 70, or something.

A quick search through the FS’s speech – not one mention of ‘national security’. The edgiest thing about the whole Budget.

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