More choreographed BS

August 27th, 2014

Just as you thought the barrage of bullshit couldn’t get any louder, up go the decibels. Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung says that Hong Kong can’t have elections in line with international norms because the city allows non-citizens to vote, which the rest of the world doesn’t. Actually, some countries do, but leaving facts aside, you would have thought he would at least try to present an argument with some logic. (Hint to CY: how about ‘Beijing can’t trust us with full democracy because it doesn’t trust foreign voters not to elect CIA-backed splittists’? That at least has an element of reason to it.)

Detractors point out that the Basic Law’s Article 39 binds Hong Kong to the UN’s covenant on political rights. The government seems reluctant to mention this, though again I have the perfect, watertight riposte: ‘the Chinese Communist Party isn’t bound by law, you dummy’.

Everyone is being dragged in to give the Occupy Central civil disobedience campaign a major kicking. Even the South China Morning Post’s usually insipid ‘My Take’ column follows the senseless official Lines to Take. The pro-democrat protestors will ‘undermine Hong Kong’s stability and reputation’, and the city can’t have top-notch elections because it’s not a country. Bizarrely, Occupy Central’s leader Benny Tai has himself been taken in by the propaganda, anticipating a major standstill, tear gas and general mayhem.

To refresh our memories: Occupy Central will be a bunch of people sitting in the street for a while. The movement was fading into an embarrassing flop until Beijing and its United Front machine started this absurd full-volume orchestrated freak-out, thus bolstering the campaign’s popular support and credibility. Its main achievement has been to discover, accidentally, Beijing’s hypersensitivity to academic-sounding, structured and methodical approaches to protest, presumably out of paranoia about some Mainland Gandhi or Martin Luther King bringing down the Communist regime through deliberation days and non-violent sit-ins.

If you think that sounds unlikely, this patch of mud (‘not much to see’, as the SCMP puts it) is going to be the world’s third-largest private equity hub…


Beijing unleashes latest weapon: crotchety and grumpy

August 26th, 2014

The Standard uses the phrase ‘sad and angry’. The less diplomatic among us might say ‘even more crotchety and grumpy than usual’. Either way, National People’s Congress Standing Committee member Rita Fan declares that it is futile for Hong Kong’s pro-democrats to confront Beijing over political reform, and that the planned Occupy Central civil disobedience campaign can only stiffen the Communist regime’s determination. As the South China Morning Post puts it: ‘The more you protest, the less Beijing will bend’.

So if Occupy Central promises to sit down, shut up and be good from now on, the Chinese government will be nice and give Hong Kong a more truly democratic system? Sure. The fact is that, on the matter of the 2017 election, Beijing made its mind up long ago. But it also a fact, borne out by the struggles over Article 23 and National Education, that protesting on the streets is the only thing that Beijing notices.

Rita recites the familiar stuff about how Occupy Central – a bunch of people sitting in the road desperate for a pee – will wreck not only the Hong Kong economy but gullible young people’s lives. This is essentially a slur against the whole noble Gandhi/Martin Luther King non-violent disobedience thing, but it seems to put Occupy Central on the defensive, leaving them having to explain yet again the detailed, academic philosophy behind their peaceful approach. The correct, attention-grabbing response would be to defame Rita back and loudly demand that she come clean about the things you read about her Shanghainese father’s links with the criminal and infamously violent Green Gang. But of course the pro-dems are too nice for that.

A more nuanced approach by Beijing to the pro-dems would be to ask: ‘Why waste your breath?’ Essentially, the pro-democrats are demanding that the Communist Party put itself up for election against alternatives in Hong Kong. ‘You know we will not/cannot do it, so spare everyone the fuss’. But in order to ask its opponents to be reasonable, the Communist one-party system has to sound reasonable. Its vocabulary is largely limited to ‘crush opposition without mercy’.

The more moderate pro-dems, at least, insist they are not in the business of trying to topple the Communist Party; they just want an open non-rigged choice in Hong Kong’s local elections. They couch this aim in the most virtuous terms of universal human rights and values, which forces Beijing’s officials and supporters to resort to ridiculous euphemisms in which ‘national security’ or ‘patriotism’ equate to one-party dictatorship. To be even more hilariously aggravating, the pro-dems have unearthed a 1944 Xinhua news editorial demanding that the Kuomintang dictatorship of the time grant an open, non-rigged choice in elections.

There will be no meeting of minds here. In Beijing, you have one side with no moral right (except insofar as a pluralistic China today would be, as some claim, in chaos), but all the might and power of the state. In the pro-dems, you have a side with all the moral right, but with no practical or effective means of changing the status quo (except insofar as Beijing is, as some imagine, susceptible to international pressure and shame).

The outcome, this time at least: the pro-dems will score 10 out of 10 for being correct, while Beijing will score 10 out of 10 for having its way. On a brighter note, maybe Rita Fan will fade from view.



Committees pretend to do stuff, get taken seriously

August 25th, 2014

To illustrate what rule of law means in Hong Kong, take a look at Macau. A small group of pro-democracy activists, inspired by the Big Lychee’s recent ‘civil referendum’, launch a small-scale poll to gauge the public’s opinion of bumbling Chief Executive Fernando Chui. Beijing is giving Chui a second term of office via a make-believe (not to say uncontested) vote by a 400-strong rigged ‘election committee’.

As soon as the street poll started, Macau police detained activists and intimidated other participants, citing supposed ‘personal data’ infringements. Not only the
Judicial Police but the Personal Data Protection Office had to take part in this obvious abuse of state power. In Hong Kong, the courts would send the government packing – which is why Occupy Central can safely ignore pro-Beijing ranting about self-styled referendums being illegal. Macau is a banana republic in comparison; its Portuguese colonial regime represented a military dictatorship in Lisbon and lost control of the place to Communist elements by the late 1960s. It has nothing like Hong Kong’s tradition of an independent judiciary (or press, for that matter).

News reports persist in describing Beijing’s reappointment of Chui as if an election process is underway (‘standing unopposed’, ‘people … eligible to vote’). The international media do the same with Hong Kong’s own rigged non-elections for Chief Executive (‘Under the current system…‘), and they are doing it now by reporting that the National People’s Congress Standing Committee is meeting this week to debate and vote on what sort of political reforms the city can have for the 2016-17 elections.

It is true that a body called the Standing Committee of the NPC is gathering. The rest, we can safely assume, is baloney. The cautious wording of the Basic Law suggests Beijing anticipated a possible transition to a guided form of democracy decades ago; the outline of this 2017 reform package probably dates back to 2007, and the details would have been approved by top Communist leadership well before the Hong Kong government’s ‘consultation’ started late last year. Even any surprise last-minute sweeteners will have been carefully scripted in advance.

So the NPC Standing Committee is just a Leninist charade, like any Macau or Hong Kong Election Committee pretending to freely vote for a candidate when Beijing has already decided the winner. The South China Morning Post explains that Rita Fan is the only Hong Kong delegate on the committee and thus entitled to vote, and the other 12 locals will only have the right to speak. In reality, the delegates may have to listen to droning speeches, may have the opportunity to say how much they agree, and may hold their hands up (if full members like Rita) at the end. They will also be dragged to a lot of meals and have plenty of time for afternoon naps. But that’s it: the process is pure make-believe.

‘City holds its breath’, the SCMP claims. Over something decided ages ago, and we all know pretty much what it is.


Outrage as city doesn’t come to halt over dog

August 22nd, 2014

As is often the case as the end of summer starts to approach, the mentally diseased take over.

Frenzied mouth-frothing erupts in Hong Kong after a stray dog is fatally hit by a train. The facts of the case are: stray dog got on tracks near MTR station; staff halted trains for five minutes while trying in vain to get the animal; operations resumed, and the creature was later found dead.

Apparently, the correct procedure is as follows:

  • Hold up all rail services for as many hours – or days – as it takes to retrieve the precious dog. Tens of thousands of commuters and other travellers will believe it an honour to wait on sweltering platforms or in stationary trains while MTR staff comb the line.
  • When found, airlift the canine by helicopter to special doggy hospital to receive the latest high-tech veterinary acupuncture and dine on Debauve & Gallais chocolates and Bollinger champagne.
  • Any passenger impudent enough to complain about the delay or faint from thirst to be fined HK$20,000 under MTR by-laws against insensitivity to our furry friends.

Grown men and women, plus extraordinarily opportunistic People Power activists, assemble at the station to burn incense and pray for the departed. A hundred thousand or so sign an on-line petition demanding whatever people like this demand – a universal pension for dogs or something. And then, just as you think it can’t get any more grotesque, one protester compares the situation to the death a few years ago in the Mainland of a little girl who was run over by a vehicle and ignored by passers-by in the street. I didn’t use the phrase ‘mentally diseased’ lightly.

Hong Kong is hardly the only place in the world where people are becoming unhinged and incapable of fully distinguishing other species from humans. In the United States, admirers of cute fluffiness have recently been horrified to learn that rabbits can be food. British singer Morrissey thinks meat-eating is on a par with paedophilia. Here in the Big Lychee, middle-age – possibly childless – women dress poodles up in lace and push them round in buggies. It is not normal or healthy.

At least there seem to be limits. I haven’t seen the dog-mourners setting up shrines for the thousands of furry rodents poisoned every year by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department. Rats, presumably, aren’t big enough, aren’t fluffy enough, don’t look at us with big round eyes enough, don’t sometimes appear to be grinning enough. And at least the child-like mawkishness over furry animals is, however misplaced, genuine – and not the sort of manipulative, cunning, cultish yuck with which I declare the weekend open: an invitation to fawn over Deng Xiaoping’s wheelchair…



Non-starter wouldn’t work anyway, otherwise great

August 21st, 2014

How’s this for an exquisite bit of policymaking inanity?

That’s right: a solution to poverty in the form of a handout that’s not enough to live on.

Hong Kong has identified a problem in the form of elderly poor. The generation that grew up around the 1940s-50s were born into a time of chaos. Many had little education and little opportunity during their working lives to save for retirement. The result is that a significant section of the over-65s struggle to get by and even end up picking through waste paper and making us feel terrible.

We have a fairly simple and practical remedy: improve the existing means-tested welfare safety-net by increasing the amount of cash it hands out and making the application system less humiliating. There is no need to raise taxes: simply stop squandering public funds on pointless infrastructure projects and excessive civil service salaries. And this would not commit us to a long-term burden, as the cost could level off and even decline in the decades ahead as the impoverished elderly die out and better-educated and wealthier generations come up for retirement.

But that would be too easy. It would also require the bureaucrats to be honest about Hong Kong’s fiscal situation. The truth is that, despite all the panic-spreading about the ‘aging society’ and future deficits, the government has far more money stuffed away in reserves than it knows what to do with. Add the billions constantly leaking out through stupid expenditure priorities, and it’s got more still. It is the last thing they want to admit.

Luckily for the bureaucrats, our politicians and activists are fixated with the idea of a universal pension. As the Western world’s social security systems show, such entitlements can become entrenched and bloated and ultimately ruinous. To be self-funded and sustainable, it would require new revenue streams. Push this button and you get instant mayhem, as everyone points fingers all over the place demanding that someone else pay for it. In practice, it all comes out of our pockets in the end, regardless of whether you call it ‘government subsidy’, ‘employer contribution’, ‘extra profits tax’ or, obviously, ‘salary deduction’. But battlers for social justice and economic sense will fight to the death over it anyway.

So after a year-long study, a group of academics and other geniuses under Professor Nelson Chow propose several variants of a HK$3,000 a month universal pension funded by some form of payroll tax. As the paragraph at the top makes clear, it won’t be enough for the truly impoverished to live on. For many of the rest, it will essentially be a form of forced savings; bizarrely, it would co-exist with the Mandatory Provident Fund, which the group seems to propose maintaining separately, maybe for heritage preservation reasons. In a perhaps insulting attempt to sell the idea to the middle class who don’t need it, Chow assures the better off that they won’t be subsidizing poorer people.

You wouldn’t have thought that so many experts could devise a system that hasn’t a chance of being implemented and which wouldn’t solve the problem if it were. But they pulled it off.

Worth a Silver Bauhinia Star, surely.


CY: a committee is a unit, not a group

August 20th, 2014

Never let it be said that China Daily doesn’t let you know what’s coming. (Story not online, but also buried away here.) Chief Executive CY Leung instructs us in Basic Law semantics. The Nomination Committee that will in theory select candidates for Hong Kong’s 2017 Chief Executive election will act ‘collectively’. In plain words: a committee is a rubber stamp. Just as the current Election Committee simply ‘elects’ the Chief Executive Beijing has previously decided will win, so the core bloc on the nominating body (essentially the same thing) will merely pretend to select the central government’s pre-determined participants. The rest of us will then be able to vote for one of these candidates.

We can be fairly certain that most public figures who identify as part of the pro-democracy camp will not get onto an initial shortlist, let alone Beijing’s finalized ballot. While this is obviously a travesty of democratic principles, from a governance and public-policy point of view it will be no great loss.

Many, many years ago – probably the early 90s – I recall a government attempt to get the Legislative Council to raise the Cross-Harbour Tunnel toll. Then as now, low pricing distorted traffic flows and created congestion and pollution, and thus led to economic costs and damage to people’s health. The Democratic Party lawmakers, under then-leader Martin Lee, joined vested interests in voting the measure down, citing some sort of unfair-to-drivers garbage. Beijing’s essential claim that a pro-dem Chief Executive could be a CIA-backed threat to one-party rule and national security looks like (and is) absurd Communist paranoia. But screening pan-dems out on grounds of their incompetence might strike much of the public as prudent.

Not that prominent members of the pro-Beijing camp look like dazzling leadership material. Various names get tossed around, such as natural-born patriot Tsang Yok-sing, slick-and-smug financier Antony Leung, this or that senior civil servant, or even a new-look, warm-and-cuddly CY Leung. But imagine having to finalize a ballot of, say, three candidates.

Any attempt to fix the final stage of a so-far totally-rigged process will invite a voter boycott, and the ‘winner’ will fail before even taking office, leaving even more of a crisis than we have now. So at least two of the candidates have to be serious and electable and fit to claim a popular mandate. They will need to go beyond the traditional quasi-election charade of throwaway policy platforms and endorsements from fawning tycoons and Emperor Group pop stars. They’ll need halfway credible teams to back them and look capable of subsequently occupying government posts. If it was happening on a planet being visited by the Starship Enterprise they’d say: “It’s an election, Jim, but not as we know it.”

Beijing presumably believes it can identify a few candidates that it can both live with and present to the electorate for approval, and indeed to complete the selection, one-man one-vote. Out of a population of 7 million, suitable people obviously exist, right? Even so, good luck with that.

A couple of links for prospective CEs: obviously, overseas domestic workers come way down the list, but don’t miss Time Out HK’s new angle on the story. Also, when you see sense and ban the selfie stick, consider exempting these guys.



An ‘end in sight’ scenario while the struggle continues

August 19th, 2014

It is unlikely that many people went through the Hong Kong government’s report on the public consultation exercise on 2016-17 political reforms. If my own 0.03-second perusal of the documents is anything to go by, it largely comprised identical statements from hundreds of United Front groups like the Federation of Hong Kong Shenzhen Associations. A South China Morning Post study (which they wisely dumped on academics) confirms that it’s a mass of ‘orchestrated bloc submissions favouring a conservative stance’.

Only the naïve would expect it any other way. Most Hong Kong government consultation exercises are designed in some way to reach the bureaucrats’ preferred conclusion. Those on political reform have to conform to the wishes of the sovereign power, and have a long record, dating back to the 1980s, of ‘finding’ that the population is far less enthusiastic about democracy than public opinion polls indicate.

Former Chief Secretary Anson Chan’s pro-democracy group has just commissioned a poll, showing that people want a low nomination threshold and object to screening for Chief Executive candidates in 2017. Dame Conscience’s survey also finds that the majority of Hongkongers would want their elected lawmakers to veto a proposed political reform that doesn’t meet these requirements.

By chance, Beijing’s local Liaison Office has been holding discussions with pan-democrats, and telling them that the Central Government has not yet finalized its proposals for reform, and could therefore still be persuaded to be flexible on details. But ‘details’ here means ‘symbolic or ornamental stuff that does not change anything in practice’.

In theory, they could give way on the anticipated conservative requirement of a 50% nomination threshold for candidates and accept a one-eighth threshold – if it makes the pro-dems happy. Just be aware that the size and composition of the Nomination Committee will have to be adjusted accordingly, so only a one-eighth bloc of ‘votes’ controlled by Beijing can put names onto the ballot, while a lesser bloc of pro-dems stands by uselessly.

The idea that the Communist Party will not screen candidates is absurd and reflects a complete lack of understanding of the nature of a one-party state. Yes, we all know that they can trust the Hong Kong people not to elect a traitor. But they don’t do ‘trust’. (Xi, Li and the other half dozen Politburo members almost certainly don’t even trust each other.) Such a regime divides the world into two categories: things they control, and enemies.

Thus, internally, the Party must ultimately control everything including the legislature, the courts, the army, the police, the media, the currency, interest rates, religion, charities, provincial/county/city administrations, Special Administrative Regions and so on. If it isn’t directly controlled (like foreign or private companies or Hong Kong SAR judges) it can be, thanks to laws that mean whatever we say they mean, courts or Standing Committees that do whatever we tell them, and ultimately firepower. Or it’s an enemy (like the Falun Gong or Nobel-winning essayists) to be crushed. None of that separation of powers, checks-and-balances stuff. Overseas, of course, it’s basically wall-to-wall enemies.

The pan-dems will decry the rigging of the 2017 ballot as no better than the 1997-2012 system, or the Mainland, or North Korea, or whatever. This isn’t true. Beijing wouldn’t be putting itself and the rest of us through this tortuous process if it didn’t see its guided version of universal suffrage as a Big Scary Brave Step into the unknown. In terms of Western or international norms, it may be ‘fake’, but to a Leninist totalitarian structure, letting the masses decide, in a way that can’t be controlled, among three candidates is downright freaky.

Whatever happens, there can be only two options:

1.  The status quo, in which Beijing decides the ‘winner’, a pro-democrat can get on the ballot and pretend to be a candidate, and a 1,200-strong Election Committee will pretend to elect Beijing’s choice; or

2.  Fake/guided/freaky democracy, in which Beijing decides two or three candidates, a 1,200-strong Nomination Committee will pretend to choose them for the ballot, and the electorate gets to genuinely choose one in a contested race.

The question is whether option 2 holds any hope of an improvement in governance over option 1. In forming your answer, you may wish to consider that option 1 is currently producing unresponsive administrations of possibly unsurpassable crappiness.

Other possible courses of action are simply not there, however much tactical sense it might make for pro-dems to insist otherwise, unless you include the end of one-party rule in the equation.

Anson Chan’s poll finding – that people want lawmakers to veto anything but full democracy – contradicts another recent survey suggesting people will accept the fake version as better than nothing. Pro-dems who find this offensive and unacceptable are no doubt right to dismiss the poll for being commissioned by pro-establishment stooges and carried out by a crummy quasi-university. But it is likely that a lot depends on how you word the question. It is also likely that while people feel one way in their hearts, their brains tell them something else. While of little relevance to Hong Kong, opinion polls on next month’s referendum on Scottish independence come to mind. Many respondents in Scotland clearly gain some emotional satisfaction from saying they will vote to leave the UK; common sense says they’re not stupid enough to actually do it.

The British can actually place bets on the outcome. If the Jockey Club were so flexible, I would put money on the following. After Beijing issues its proposal, the pro-democracy camp makes its last stand in the form of Occupy Central. The dust settles, and the stark choice between options 1 and 2 is all that’s left. Seeing nothing to be gained from vetoing the reform, public opinion will come down in favour of it, if grudgingly. Unless an ill-judged and venomous United Front propaganda campaign provokes a backlash of the sort that rescued Occupy Central from obscurity, enough pro-dem lawmakers take the hint and the package passes. Prozac prescriptions leap.


Hong Kong’s bizarre ‘Fujianese Against Freedom’ march

August 18th, 2014

Yesterday’s ‘Alliance for Peace and Democracy’ procession against Occupy Central is officially portrayed as the silent majority opposing lawlessness and disaster. It mainly highlighted the weirdness resulting from the political/social/cultural gap between the Chinese government and the mainstream Hong Kong population.

When the forces that hold power organize a street demonstration against the forces who don’t hold power – that is, the government holds a march against the populace – you know something strange is happening. Despite its title, the protest had no positive aim. It was a demonstration against demonstrating. It was demanding that people stop demanding things. It was a march for silence and obedience, and acceptance of unrepresentative (not to say poor) government.

Obviously, participants in such a march are not going to be an average cross-section of society. Pro-democracy gatherings lean disproportionately towards Hong Kong’s middle-class, young, educated – and disgruntled. But yesterday’s crowd didn’t even include many of their local demographic opposites. There were some of those elderly grumpy villagers who hate everything and came voluntarily, if not with great enthusiasm. But they seemed seriously outnumbered by people who were paid, fed, pressured or blatantly shipped in from across the border.

Busloads of orange-shirted members of some Fujianese ‘association’ started arriving in Tin Hau after noon. White shirts representing communities in Guangdong were also present. Red shirts were (predictably) most numerous. Many wearers were apparently connected with labour organizations, but they also included rather self-conscious South Asian guys, and some of the few people apparently having fun: Filipino and Indonesian women who could only have been domestic helpers.

Stories (start here) abound of money changing hands, Causeway Bay restaurants being block-booked for marchers’ free lunches, and attendees hiding faces or having no idea why they were there (or maybe even where they were). And there’s all the trash they left everywhere. Perhaps the most amusing feature of the fake protest was the way a noticeable number of marchers ditched their flags and peeled away just a few hundred yards after leaving Victoria Park. When pro-democrats march past Sogo, they are not overwhelmed by a compulsion to go shopping, but many of this lot apparently couldn’t resist. By the time the parade got to Central, it was as if nothing but stragglers had ever taken part (not counting cheats who had taken the MTR short-cut).

The turnout was obviously far less than that of July 1, which created a quandary for the police: do they preserve their reputation and issue a figure in proportion to that of July 1, or do they shred their integrity and appease the Communist Party’s United Front by producing obviously false numbers? They of course chose the latter.

It’s not fair to pick on the cops, or indeed on everyone else involved and also just following orders. This event was an exercise in self-humiliation for the whole government and establishment (you think lawmaker Regina Ip or landlord Allan Zeman felt good being part of this charade?). Some months ago, we can guess, a tyrant and user of black hair dye in Beijing banged the table with his fist and demanded that the CIA-backed splittist Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong be crushed. Such is China’s no-questions, punishment-oriented system that the order was passed down through the local Liaison Office and out through the United Front to Hong Kong officials, loyalists and shoe-shiners. They dutifully went through the motions, resulting in the absurd phoniness and massive overkill of the anti-Occupy campaign.

It is surprising that Beijing has such an inadequate power base in Hong Kong in 2014 that it has to beg and bribe (and import) people just to pretend to be its friends. And even with all those organizational and financial resources, this parade of morose rather-be-shopping litterbugs is the best the United Front can manage? They have control, but no influence. Which is almost sad, in a way.



Solicitors thrash United Front

August 15th, 2014

The week closes on a bright note in the form of a Law Society squabble most of us don’t really understand in deep detail, but basically: good triumphs over evil.

Not many of us spare much time thinking about solicitors. They’re the breed of lawyer who scrape a living doing photocopying – or as they call it, ‘conveyancing’. Triads, money-launderers and bankrupts depend on them to use paperwork and form-filling to make nastiness look legitimate or to issue veiled threats. They are typically not to the manor born, but unpolished and locally and relatively modestly educated sons of the upwardly mobile lower-middle. They tend to be short, shifty-looking and have hair and fingernail problems.

The big contrast, of course, is with barristers. Barristers are authentic Beautiful People: tall, rich, intellectual, glamorous and spotless. They are cosmopolitan and speak English better than the Queen. And they are noble; they stand up in court and expose murderers’ evidence as lies, while ensuring the innocent always walk free. The saintly and fragrant Audrey is an obvious example. So is Ronny. And Martin. And of course they are pro-democracy.

The Law Society’s fuss concerned the grubby specimen in charge, one Ambrose Lam. He for some reason spoke approvingly of the Chinese Government’s ‘white paper’ defining Hong Kong as an ungrateful hovel of barbarians’ running dogs, incapable and unworthy of self-rule, and – specifically – suggesting that judges are mere pawns in a chain of command. Some other members of the profession challenged him and organized a vote of no-confidence.

Most of us would have shrugged at this apparent tiff and carried on. But then things got interesting. Having assumed the right to intimidate the media, rig opinion polls, turn chambers of commerce into puppets and bully thousands of workers into joining fake movements against democracy, the Communist Party’s local United Front decided it could hijack the Law Society through its usual, charming menacing-phone-calls-in-the-night tactics. Taking umbrage, the city’s solicitors made a point of turning out to vote in favour of the motion, leaving Ambrose Lam insisting that there were ‘no winners or losers’ in that hilarious way some people do when they have just suffered a horribly humiliating and crushing defeat.

More to the point, they faced down the United Front. He who lives by the proxy vote, dies by the proxy vote.  Like ducklings growing into very fine swans, or caterpillars transformed into dazzling butterflies, solicitors prove themselves as heroes.

Meanwhile, the less defiant and more easily cowed will be on the march this Sunday for the part-sad, part-grotesque Alliance for Peace and Democracy. Organizer, or more accurately ‘originator’, Robert Chow is still pleading for illiterate villagers, lunchbox-mongers and other participants to keep calm and, somehow, smile in the face of jeering bystanders. When he started his ‘Silent Majority’ against the pro-democrats, it was presumably a simple and harmless shoe-shining stunt with a view to boosting whatever cheesy business he runs. Next thing, it has been seized by Communist Party operatives and turned into a ludicrous and phony ‘movement’ mobilizing thousands of press-ganged workers as protest-fodder.

All eyes will be on the poor police, to see if they have been tainted by United Front influence and ordered to enforce an easier crowd-control regime than they apply to pro-democrats. Most of all, it will be fascinating to note the glumness and joylessness of the (mostly) reluctant or clueless marchers, pitifully clutching their HK$300 as they plod through the heat and humidity (the forecast is ‘no rain, but Seriously Sweaty’). I declare the weekend open with the offer of a special prize for whoever photographs the most miserable and morose-looking anti-democracy protester.


Bodies on streets

August 14th, 2014

Front-page headlines on the South China Morning Post’s main and City sections make for an interesting juxtaposition today. The former ponders the crowd size and potential mayhem of the mooted Occupy Central action in favour of democracy in Hong Kong. The latter describes the city’s declining quality of life, and how housing has become so unaffordable that a typical household needs to save its entire income for 14 years to buy a home. Every element of the pro-Beijing/establishment sphere is being regimented into chanting slogans about how pro-democracy action on the streets will damage the economy. The two headlines suggest the opposite: the wanton deterioration of livelihoods has already happened, and public anger is the result.

The SCMP believes Occupy Central needs double its hoped-for 10,000 participants to bring the business district to a halt. The paper assumes that the civil disobedience planners will have everyone linking arms along Chater Road and at particular scattered intersections. I’m no expert, but I would have thought swamping just one section of Peddar Street plus its intersections with Wyndham/Queens and Des Voeux/Chater Roads (in blue box on the map) would gum up the north-, west- and east-bound traffic flows well enough.

(Strange, isn’t it, that when you fill the streets from Victoria Park to Admiralty with marchers on July 1, the police barely count 100,000, yet it now takes a fifth of that number to fill a few yards of Chater Rd?)

The SCMP quotes a police source as fretting over the possibility that protestors will target the cross-harbour tunnel and other ‘major highways and landmarks’. Let’s think: Government House, the airport, all border crossings with Shenzhen (please), an amphibious assault on Disneyland and (this would stretch the manpower) taking every 7-Eleven in town. Presumably, the cops are talking excitedly of an urban paramilitary uprising because that’s what Beijing’s officials expect and require them to do. Or maybe they really believe it. Being accustomed to law-breakers who use violence and run away, the police could find peaceful and static villains a bit overwhelming. The joys of asymmetric conflict!

Before Occupy Central even decides whether to go ahead, its fake-grassroots opposition movement has its big gathering this Sunday. The Standard quotes organizer Robert Chow as advising marchers to smile in the face of taunts from misfits who are not part of the Silent Majority. So, as a result of the Communist Party’s United Front pressure on your boss, you’ve been forced to cancel a dream vacation with your family with no refund, and ordered to walk through the streets in the heat and humidity chanting slogans about how you like needing 14 years’ salary to buy a home – and then you have to grin. You’d want to slash your wrists. But they’ve thought of that…